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Indian Data Watch-Inflation data on Nov 20

Mon Nov 17, 2008 10:21am IST
 
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 DAY  LOCAL/GMT  INDICATOR/EVENT   PERIOD  FORECAST  PREVIOUS
 -------------Calendar for November 17 week-------------------
 Thu 1800/1230   Inflation         Nov 8    N/F      8.98 pct
 Fri 1700/1130   Forex reserves    Nov 14   N/F   $251.36 bln
 Fri 1700/1130   M3 money supply   Nov 7    N/F      19.9 pct
 Fri 1700/1130   Bank credit       Nov 7    N/F        29 pct
 -------------Calendar for November 24 week-------------------
 Thu 1800/1230   Inflation         Nov 15   N/F        NA    
 Fri 1200/0630   GDP               Jul-Sep  N/F       9.3 pct
 Fri 1600/1030   Fiscal deficit    Apr-Oct  N/F     1,027 bln
              (in bln rupees)                             
 Fri 1700/1130   Forex reserves    Nov 21   N/F        NA    
 -------------Calendar for December 1 week--------------------
 Mon 1030/0500   ABN Amro PMI      Nov      N/F      52.2    
 Mon 1200/0630   Trade deficit     Nov      N/F    $10.63 bln
 Thu 1200/0630   Infrastructure    Oct      N/F       5.1 pct
              output@                                     
 Thu 1800/1230   Inflation         Nov 22   N/F        NA    
 Fri 1700/1130   Forex reserves    Nov 28   N/F        NA    
 Fri 1700/1130   M3 money supply   Nov 21   N/F        NA    
 Fri 1700/1130   Bank credit       Nov 21   N/F        NA    
 @ Tentative date subject to change                          
 -------------Calendar for December 8 week--------------------
 Thu 1800/1230   Inflation         Nov 29   N/F        NA    
 Fri 1200/0630   Industrial output Oct      N/F       4.8 pct
 Fri 1700/1130   Forex reserves    Dec 5    N/F        NA    
 -------------------------------------------------------------
             WEEKLY      CURRENT   WK-EARLIER   YR-EARLIER
 WPI inflation  Nov 1      8.98 pct    10.72 pct     3.35 pct
 Forex reserves Nov 7   $251.36 bln  $252.88 bln  $270.18 bln
 -------------------------------------------------------------
        BI-MONTHLY   CURRENT   TWO WK-EARLIER   YR-EARLIER
 M3 (yoy)      Oct 24   19.9 pct      20.3 pct       22.5 pct
 Bank deposit  Oct 24   34.86         34.69          28.8    
 (Rs. trillion)  Bank credit   Oct 24   26.15         26.07
  20.27   
 (Rs. trillion) 
-------------------------------------------------------------
            MONTHLY    CURRENT  MONTH EARLIER   YR EARLIER
 Fiscal deficit  Sep     77.0 pct       87.7 pct     53.8 pct
 (pct of budget                                              
 target)                                                     
 Trade balance   Sep  -$10.63 bln    -$13.94 bln   -$4.56 bln
 Exports         Sep   $13.75 bln        $16 bln   $12.46 bln
 Imports         Sep   $24.38 bln     $29.95 bln   $17.01 bln
 Industry output Sep      4.8 pct        1.4 pct      7.0 pct
 Infrastructure  Sep      5.1 pct        2.7 pct      5.8 pct
 output                                                      
 Car sales       Oct       98,900        108,823      105,877
 (domestic)                                                  
 Cement output   Oct        14.71          13.86        13.86
 (mln tonnes)#                                               
 Cement          Oct        14.26          13.87        13.74
 despatches                                                  
 (mln tonnes)#                                               
 NOTE - Figures have been rounded off;                       
 # Cement production and despatches figures are provisional as
 compiled by Cement Manufacturers' Association of India.     
 -------------------------------------------------------------
 QUARTERLY    PERIOD     CURRENT    QTR EARLIER    QTR YR-AGO
 GDP         Apr-Jun     7.9 pct        8.8 pct       9.2 pct
 Balance of  Apr-Jun  -$2.24 bln    -$24.99 bln    -$11.2 bln
 payment@                                                    
 @ Source: Reserve Bank of India; (-) means increase         
 -------------------------------------------------------------
 ANNUAL                 2007/08   2006/07   2005/06   2004/05
 Population (million)     1,127     1,111     1,107     1,090
 Real GDP growth (pct)      9.0       9.6       9.4       7.5
 Industrial output          8.1      11.6       9.6       9.8
 (pct growth)                                                
 Agricultural output        4.5       3.8       6.0       0.0
 (pct growth)                                                
 Fiscal deficit             2.8       3.5       4.1       4.0
 (% of GDP)                 b                                 
 Balance of Payments     -92.16    -36.61    -15.05    -26.16
 (in $ bln) @                                                
 Current a/c             -17.40     -9.77      -9.9      -5.4
 balance (in $ bln)                                          
 Exports (merchandise)    162.9    128.08    105.15      83.5
 (in $ bln)                                                  
 Car production            1.42      1.24      1.05      0.96
 (mln units)                                                 
 Car sales (mln units)     1.20      1.08      0.88      0.82
 @ Source: Reserve Bank of India; (-) indicates increase     
 -------------------------------------------------------------
 (Estimates are as per Central Statistical Organisation)     
 SOVEREIGN RATINGS (OUTLOOK) FOR LONG-TERM FOREIGN CURRENCY
DEBT:
 Moody's Baa3 (stable); S&P BBB- (stable); Fitch BBB- (stable)
 ($1=49 rupees)
 (Compiled by Rajkumar Ray)

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