Do More With Reuters
Partner Services

ANALYSIS-Can emerging economies stand alone as cash flees?

Wed Oct 1, 2008 10:29pm IST
 
Email | Print | | Single Page
[-] Text [+]

By Peter Apps

LONDON, Oct 1 (Reuters) - As western investors dump emerging assets, the fate of the sector's major economies will hang on whether Brazil, Russia, China and others such as Gulf Oil producers have built up enough funds to survive the storm.

Just months ago, many analysts argued the fast-growing sector had "decoupled" from the developed world. But a Wall Street-led rout has since hit stock markets from Lusaka to Bombay as western banks failed or needed bailing out.

Lehman Brothers' failure this month prompted the biggest withdrawal of cash from emerging stocks since fund monitor EPFR began records in 2002, and the sector benchmark .MSCIEF shows its worst quarter in a two decade history.

A decade ago, that would have devastated emerging economies but analysts and investors say this time the sector's heavyweights, also including India or the Gulf States, have enough cash to keep themselves in the black.

"Over the next five-to-10 years, emerging markets are still going to be a growth story and asset managers are going to be putting more money there," said Nigel Rendell, emerging markets strategist at Royal Bank of Canada.

"But in the short term people are going to be pulling money out."

That leaves emerging economies largely dependent on their own resources or those of their peers and neighbours. Will they be able to hold up domestic demand, maintain at least reasonable exports and keep the capital and liquidity flowing?

"I think at the moment people are finding it difficult to know where to put their money," said HSBC Halbis Frontier markets fund manager Andrea Nannini -- who has been increasing the position of his $240 million fund in the Middle East.  Continued...

India Investment Summit 2009
India Investment Summit 2009

Top executives and bankers discuss their own plans and the broader opportunities and challenges for India.  Full Coverage 

GLOBAL RECOVERY

A labourer works on a flyover bridge at a construction site in New Delhi October 14, 2009. REUTERS/Parth Sanyal/Files
Global economy in holding pattern - IMF

The global economy is in a holding pattern and vulnerable to more upheaval, the head of the IMF said, adding a lasting recovery will depend on policymakers taking the proper steps in the coming months.  Full Article 

A man walks past a bronze statue of a bull outside the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building in Mumbai in this March 25, 2008 file photo. REUTERS/Punit Paranjpe/Files
Bubble trouble?

With India's benchmark stock index, the BSE Sensex, at around 17,000 points, are the Indian equity markets looking at a possible bubble?  Commentary 

Market Update

  • IndiaIndia
  • USUS
  • UKUK
  • Asia
  • Most Actives

SPECIAL REPORT

Himangshu Watts
India's food dilemma

Indian farms are failing to attract capital or talent, either from rich landlords or the students who graduate from agricultural universities.  Full Article | Related Story 

showcase

U.S. Recession
U.S. Recession

A trip through the epicenters of the American recession.  Full Coverage 

 
Central Banks Cautious
Central Banks Cautious

Reuters tracks the policies of the world's top central banks as the debate over global economic recovery rages on.   Full Coverage 

 
T P Raman
Column - RBI leads the world

Reserve Bank of India's approach ring-fenced the banking system.   Full Article 

 
Funding Blues
Funding Blues

A popular tactic used by Indian brokerages to raise money for rich clients is likely to be banned.  Full Article 

 
Not Enough Jobs
Not Enough Jobs

Venture capital creates jobs, but not enough.  Full Article 

 
Column - A Sweet Dream
Column - A Sweet Dream

There are good reasons for Ferrero to consider a combination with Cadbury.  Full Article