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METALS-Shanghai copper lower despite dollar, oil

Thu Nov 5, 2009 1:21pm IST
 
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 * Copper prices lower despite weak dlr, steady oil
 * Shanghai market less bullish, seen rangebound
 By Rujun Shen and Edmund Klamann
 SHANGHAI, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Shanghai copper edged lower on
Thursday, and is expected to move in a narrow range, pressured
by the spot market, despite support from a weaker U.S. dollar
and steady oil prices.
 Investors were eyeing rate decisions by the European
Central Bank and the Bank of England later in the day, after
the U.S. Federal Reserve said on Wednesday it would keep rates
steady near zero. [ECB/INT] [BOE/INT].
 The dollar was expected to remain under pressure as the Fed
decision encouraged investors to turn to higher-yielding
currencies, as oil prices stayed firm.
 "I don't expect copper prices to go down much, exactly
because those markets are being supportive," said Lin Yuhui,
deputy general manager of Jinhui Futures, who expects copper
prices to be rangebound for at least a few weeks.
 "Even though copper is bullish in the medium- and
long-term, the pace of ascent needs some adjustment. Prices
would either be rangebound for a while to consolidate, or move
down before rising higher."
 Shanghai's benchmark third-month copper futures contract
SCFc3 fell 0.8 percent to close at 50,710 yuan ($7,429) a
tonne, despite a 1.7 percent rise in London copper in the
previous session.
 Three-month copper futures contracts on the London Metal
Exchange MCU3 shed $55 to $6,515 a tonne by 0703 GMT.
 The market is also awaiting monthly U.S. employment data
due Friday. Forecasts call for the unemployment rate to edge up
to 9.9 percent in October from 9.8 percent in September;
non-farm payrolls are expected to fall by 175,000 in October
after a decline of 263,000 in September.
 "The abundant spot supply is weighing down on prices, but
bullish sentiment has not disappeared. Price movement is stuck
between these two forces," said Li Rong, an analyst at Great
Wall Futures.
 "There is very little going on, as reflected in the
shrinking trading activity in the market."
 China's September copper imports staged a surprise jump,
and production also peaked, but the real demand picture
remained murky.
 "Shanghai is obviously dragging down London today," said a
Shanghai-based trader. "The bullish sentiment in China is not
as strong as in London. China's end-consumers and people with
import contracts are not willing to buy at the current price
levels.
 "There is not a clear direction in the market, therefore
prices won't fluctuate too much."
 Supply side concerns continue to support prices. Workers
may go on strike at Antamina, a major copper pit in Peru, if
contract talks with the company fail. The strike at Chile's
Spence copper mine has lasted three weeks. [ID:ID:nN0426576]
 LME aluminium MAL3 fell $16 to $1,905 a tonne, and
Shanghai aluminium edged down 0.2 percent to 15,190 yuan a
tonne.
 LME lead fell 1.3 percent to $2,320 a tonne.
 Demand for lead in China is weakening as production of
batteries for electric bicycles falls in the winter, even
though demand from the car sector stays steady.[ID:nHKG161792]
  Base metals prices at 0703 GMT
 Metal         Last       Change   Pct Move  End 2008  Pct chg
09
 LME Cu        6515.00    -55.00     -0.84    3060.00   
112.91
 SHFE Cu*     50710.00   -420.00     -0.82   23840.00   
112.71
 LME Alum      1905.00    -16.00     -0.83    1535.00    
24.10
 SHFE Alum*   15190.00    -35.00     -0.23   11540.00    
31.63
 COMEX Cu**     298.45      0.00     +0.00     139.50   
113.94
 LME Zinc      2210.00    -19.00     -0.85    1208.00    
82.95
 SHFE Zinc    16845.00   -135.00     -0.80   10120.00    
66.45
 LME Nickel   17825.00    -75.00     -0.42   11700.00    
52.35
 LME Lead      2320.00    -30.00     -1.28     999.00   
132.23
 LME Tin      14845.00   -155.00     -1.03   10700.00    
38.74
 LME/Shanghai arb^          1331
 Dollar/yuan          6.8272 \ 6.8282
 ** 1st contract month for COMEX copper
  * 3rd contact month for SHFE aluminium, copper and zinc
  ^ LME 3-m copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE
 third month
 ($1=6.826 Yuan)
 (Editing by Clarence Fernandez)















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