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METALS-Copper hits new 14-mth highs in London and Shanghai

Thu Nov 26, 2009 9:30am IST
 
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 * Positive data lifts copper to new 14-mth peaks
 * Driven by anticipation of stronger Chinese demand
 * Eyes on US "Black Friday" shoppers to gauge consumer mood
 By Nick Trevethan
 SINGAPORE, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Copper rose on Thursday, with
London and Shanghai hitting 14-month peaks after upbeat jobless
claims, personal consumption and new home sales data added to
the feel-good factor following positive words from the Federal
Reserve this week.
 "Fundamentals haven't really changed," said David Moore,
commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank. "This is
sentiment-driven and perhaps anticipating China's demand for
raw material may be greater than expectations."
 Strength is China's steelmaking sector was already
surprising the world's biggest metals miner BHP Billiton
(BHP.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) (BLT.L: Quote, Profile, Research).
 "One element that continues to surprise us... is the
resilience of the Chinese steel sector," Chief Executive Marius
Kloppers told shareholders at an annual meeting. [ID:nWNAS7780]
 Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange MCU3 rose
more than half a percent to $7,026 a tonne at 0248 GMT and
earlier touched 7,060 its highest since September last year,
 Benchmark third-month Shanghai copper SCFc3 rose 550 to
55,230 yuan and earlier touched a 14-month peak of 55,500 yuan.
 Trading conditions were predictably thin with U.S. markets
closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving Holiday, which would
also keep volumes light on "Black Friday" too.
 "The start of the traditional pre-Christmas shopping spree
on Friday will be one to watch. If we see long queues and empty
shelves those are positive signals about how the U.S. consumer
is feeling," a dealer in Sydney said.
 He added that another piece of supportive data came from
the Vix index. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility
Index .VIX, or the VIX, a favourite barometer of investor
nervousness, sank to its lowest in 15 months.
 The dollar .DXY fell to a fresh 15-month low against a a
basket of currencies, and dropped as far as 86.52 yen JPY= on
trading platform EBS, its lowest since July 1995. [USD/]. A
weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more
attractive for investors.
 On the downside, rising copper stocks continue to gnaw at
sentiment, though at seven days' supply, according to ANZ
analysts, they are still lower than than the 10-year average of
10 days.
 The lifting of another threat to supply when workers at
Antamina, a major copper pit in Peru, said Wednesday they had
wrapped up negotiations for a labour agreement, may also dampen
enthusiasm for copper, which has rallied around 130 percent
this year. [ID:nN25371093]
 Nickel MNI3 rose $110 to $17,110, while aluminium MAL3
also edged up. The metals up 46 and 34 percent respectively
this year lag far behind gains 90 percent for zinc MZN3m
copper's 130 percent rise and lead's MPB3 140 percent rally,
 "Nickel has seen the greatest downside adjustment.
Fundamentals are fragile and the market will remain in surplus
for some time yet," Moore said, adding that supply overhangs in
aluminium, both in terms of stocks and idled capacity would
check bullish sentiment.
 Base metals prices at 0248 GMT
 Metal         Last       Change   Pct Move  End 2008  Pct chg
09
 LME Cu        7026.00     41.00     +0.59    3060.00   
129.61
 SHFE Cu*     55230.00    550.00     +1.01   23840.00   
131.67
 LME Alum      2053.00      6.00     +0.29    1535.00    
33.75
 SHFE Alum*   15680.00     25.00     +0.16   11540.00    
35.88
 COMEX Cu**     316.60      0.00     +0.00     139.50   
126.95
 LME Zinc      2300.00     -8.00     -0.35    1208.00    
90.40
 SHFE Zinc    18450.00    135.00     +0.74   10120.00    
82.31
 LME Nickel   17110.00    110.00     +0.65   11700.00    
46.24
 LME Lead      2399.00      9.00     +0.38     999.00   
140.14
 LME Tin          0.00 -15050.00   -100.00   10700.00  
-100.00
 LME/Shanghai arb^           882
 Dollar/yuan          6.8259 \ 6.8273
 ** 1st contract month for COMEX copper
  * 3rd contact month for SHFE aluminium, copper and zinc
  ^ LME 3-m copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE
third month
 (Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
 ((nicholas.trevethan@thomsonreuters.com; +65 6870 3822;
Reuters Messaging:
nicholas.trevethan.reuters.com@reuters.net))
 ((If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email
to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com))
 Reuters 3000Xtra subscribers can access Metals Production
Database by clicking on URL below
 mpd.session.rservices.com
 For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:
 LME price overview      RING=   COMEX copper futures 
<0#HG:>
 Base/minor metals news    [MET]   All metals news        
[MTL]
 All commodities news      [C] Metals diary        [MTL/DIARY]
 Foreign exchange rates FX=S SPEED GUIDES COMMODS
<LME/INDEX> 
Construction workers work at a site as the sun sets in Chandigarh in this December 2006 file photo. REUTERS/Ajay Verma
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