* ECB study models extreme 70 pct fall in collateral value
* 10.6 pct of Target 2 turnover would fail in that event
* But authors conclude system resilient to most shocks
By Francesco Canepa
FRANKFURT, Feb 21 Ten of every 100 euros sent
through the European Central Bank's payment system would not
reach their destination if the most extreme financial stress
modelled in an ECB paper materialised.
But under most scenarios, including one more severe than the
crisis of 2008, the Target 2 system would hold up well, partly
thanks to the unprecedented amount of liquidity being supplied
under the ECB's asset purchase programme.
Published on Tuesday, the study by ECB and national euro
zone central bank economists coincides with rising concerns
about a possible new euro crisis, fuelled by calls for an exit
from the currency union in Italy and France and drawn-out
bailout negotiations in Greece.
Based on data from 2008 to 2013, the study into Target 2's
resilience plotted an extreme scenario of a 70 percent collapse
in the value of banks' collateral.
If the assets banks pledge to borrow cash fell by that
amount, payments worth 238 billion euros would not be settled,
the study found. That equates to 10.6 percent of the turnover of
Target 2, through which bank payments in the euro zone are
A reduction in the value of collateral such as bonds and
loan bundles would make it harder for banks to obtain credit
from their peers and the ECB, reducing their ability to make
payments on behalf of their customers or on their own account.
The proportion of failed transactions would fall to 6.3
percent, or 143 billion euros, if collateral values fell by 30
"(But) not even during the past financial crisis were
general drops in asset prices of about 30 percent from one day
to the other observed," the economists said.
Banks and ancillary systems such as clearing houses and
stock exchanges accounted for 85 percent of the value of failed
transactions across the simulation.
Looking at volumes, bank customers fared the worst, making
up 55 percent of unsettled payments in the most severe scenario.
"Target 2 stress-testing indicates that the system is
resilient under the stress scenarios and that liquidity levels
seem to be appropriate," the study concluded.
"Even very severe liquidity shocks caused by the most
extreme collateral deteriorations lead to relatively mild
(Reporting By Francesco Canepa; editing by John Stonestreet)