What the Fed is considering at its November meeting

By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve officials meeting this week must weigh improving economic data against the risk, reinforced by a persistently weak job market, that a burgeoning recovery remains on shaky ground.

A 3.5 percent annualized jump in third quarter gross domestic product revived debate between analysts who believe a sustainable turnaround is under way, and those who think growth will falter once a heavy dose of stimulus fades.

The uncertainty is evident within the Fed itself, with many policymakers emphasizing the hazards in their outlook, even as they vow to vigorously fight any early signs of inflation.

With inflationary warning signals largely absent, an immediate shift in the central bank's ultra-easy policy stance, including any tinkering with its pledge to keep interest rates low for an "extended period," appears unlikely.

"The Federal Reserve is unlikely to change its assessment significantly," said Marc Chandler, global currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.

The Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank's policy setting group, meets on Nov. 3 and Nov.4.

RECOVERY'S ARRIVAL