Long-range hurricane forecasts: What's the point?

By Jim Loney - Analysis

MIAMI (Reuters) - In the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, the worst in recorded history, the most famous of hurricane forecasters was way off the mark when he predicted there would be 15 tropical storms. There were 28.

In fact, the past three seasons were a bust for the Colorado State University prediction team founded by Bill Gray, the pioneer of long-range hurricane forecasts, and others who dare to foray into the unpredictable world of cyclones.

The failures have left storm researchers and emergency managers asking themselves if there's any point to the seasonal forecasts that get so much attention in the media and are important to the 89 million people in the U.S. hurricane danger zone and tens of millions more in the Caribbean, Mexico and Central America.

"I wish people wouldn't hang their hat on these numbers," said Tom Iovino, a communications specialist with Florida's Pinellas County.

Iovino and others who communicate storm dangers to the public say their work is complicated by the seasonal outlooks issued by Gray, the U.S. government, private forecaster AccuWeather, London-based Tropical Storm Risk and others.

Seasonal forecasts are a best guess at the big picture. For example, a forecaster might warn that it's going to be a busy season -- the entire Atlantic basin and the Caribbean could see 15 tropical storms, and nine of them could become hurricanes.

But the chance of a hurricane hitting any one particular area is actually very small. And as weather specialists are fond of saying -- if only one hits you, it's a bad season.

Emergency managers use the pre-season forecasts to promote preparedness for the June 1-November 30 season. It's a way to tell people to stockpile food and water, pack an emergency kit with flashlights and fresh batteries and plan an evacuation route.