Forecaster may cut Atlantic storm outlook

By Jim Loney

FORT LAUDERDALE, Florida (Reuters) - Colorado State University hurricane forecaster Bill Gray said on Wednesday he may reduce his next Atlantic season forecast because sea temperatures are cooling and a weak El Nino may appear by late summer.

"Things are looking better and better for fewer storms," Gray told Reuters in an interview at the Florida Governor's Hurricane Conference in Fort Lauderdale.

"Off the west African coast there's colder water. There's increasing high pressure in the Azores Islands that typically makes the trade winds stronger," he said.

In April, Gray's team predicted the six-month Atlantic hurricane season, which starts on June 1, would see 12 tropical storms, of which six would become hurricanes and two would reach "major" status of Category 3 or higher on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity.

The pioneering forecaster said if his research team lowers the forecast, it would likely drop to 11 storms. The new forecast is scheduled for release on June 2.

The April forecast was already reduced from one issued in December, when the CSU team called for 14 tropical storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

MODELS MIXED ON EL NINO

Gray said sea surface temperatures in parts of the Atlantic were clearly cooling. Where they were about 0.1 degree Celsius above average last fall, they are now about 0.3 degrees Celsius below average, he said.