(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a
columnist for Reuters.)
* Euro and current account surplus: bit.ly/2nB21Tr
* Czech and Swiss foreign reserves: bit.ly/2mHJV4A
By Mike Dolan, European Markets Editor
LONDON, March 15 Zero interest rates, political
risk and an uncertain future? The euro currency is holding up
quite nicely for all that, with perhaps a little help from its
Widespread fears that 2017's packed European electoral
calendar poses a threat to the single currency with rising
support for eurosceptic populists across the continent appears
to be having little direct impact on the currency itself.
The European Central Bank's euro exchange rate index
is actually 0.3 percent stronger since the end of
last year. Only one of 50 trading days so far in 2017 has seen a
move in that index of more than 1 percent -- and that was a
Euro/dollar - the pivotal transatlantic exchange rate - has
traded mostly in a four cent range since the dollar surge after
U.S. elections last November -- a swing of less than 2 percent
either side of $1.06 for over four months now.
Even readings of implied volatility on a 3-month horizon
, derived from the options market, remain subdued below
10 percent -- almost half the seismic readings seen at the peak
of euro debt crisis in 2011.
Deeper in, a long-standing price premium on 'put' options to
sell euros had been climbing through January and
February. But that too reversed over the last three weeks and
has returned to end-2016 levels.
Could it be that no one in the currency market is bothered
by the anti-euro ire of increasingly popular far right leaders
such as France's Marine Le Pen or Geert Wilders in The
Netherlands? Is everyone really relaxed about German elections
that could unseat Chancellor Angela Merkel or the prospect of
snap elections in Italy this summer?
Well, not so. Weekly data from the U.S. Commodity Futures
Trading Commission gives a snapshot of speculative thinking at
least. It shows the largest net short positions against the euro
last week since early January.
Politics aside, it's also not hard to see a negative tilt
toward the euro with the widest 2-year interest rate gap in
favour of dollars in the life of the single currency and
monetary policy diverging.
Debt markets have registered the political anxiety more
clearly. Ten-year French sovereign debt spreads over Germany --
while still well below the peaks of 2011 -- have doubled over
the past four months to more than 60 basis points.
So what is holding up the euro so effectively?
STANCHING THE FLOW
The most fundamental explanation is the ballooning of the
euro zone current account surplus over the past five years to
now register net monthly inflows over outflows in excess of 30
billion euros. It is a substantial natural support averaging a
billion euros per day compared with external accounts that were
just about in balance during the blowout in 2011.
Relatively weak domestic demand for imports and strong
German exports partly explain that surplus. But so too does euro
zone governments now paying near zero or even negative returns
to foreigners holding their bonds while euro area investors suck
in much higher returns from equivalent holdings abroad.
The stable exchange rate suggests any capital seeping out
the bloc for political or relative interest rate reasons can't
have exceeded that surplus drawing inflows against it.
Partly responsible for the seeming disconnect is a tendency
for big overseas debt investors to switch within the euro area
rather than flee it altogether -- as seen with reports that
Japanese investors dumped French government bonds in recent
months but bought twice as many German bunds.
But the other tourniquet limiting the outflow has been the
behaviour of two giant marginal buyers of euros -- the Swiss
National Bank and its Czech counterpart.
Although the SNB technically abandoned its fixed cap on the
franc against the euro in 2015, it continues to amass vast
stores of euros via ad hoc intervention to prevent excessive
franc strength. Now in excess of 600 billion euros, Swiss
foreign reserves have increased by more than a hundred billion
euros, or more than 20 percent, over the past 14 months alone.
And even though it's committed to abandoning it this year,
the Czech central bank's self-imposed, three-year old cap on the
crown has seen it balloon its foreign currency
reserves by 46 billion euros, or by 80 percent, since the start
of last year -- to more than 100 billion euros last month.
That's some 60 percent of Czech gross domestic product.
Taken together, the two central banks have averaged monthly
accumulation of close to 13 billion euros. About half that is
banked in euro debt markets, a significant marginal offset to
capital flows from the zone.
Capital flight could ultimately weaken the euro -- but the
scale of that movement now clearly has to be huge to have a
durable impact on the exchange rate.
(Editing by Jeremy Gaunt)