(Corrects to "this year" not "next year" in par 2)
By Stephanie Nebehay
GENEVA, April 12 World trade is on track to
expand by 2.4 percent this year, though there is "deep
uncertainty" about economic and policy developments,
particularly in the United States, the World Trade Organization
(WTO) said on Wednesday.
The range for growth this year has been adjusted to between
1.8 and 3.6 percent, from 1.8 to 3.1 percent last September, it
said, pointing to a risk that trade activity could be "stifled"
due to lack of clarity about government policies.
"We should see trade as part of the solution to economic
difficulties, not part of the problem," WTO director-general
Roberto Azevedo said.
"Overall cautious optimism but trade growth remains fragile
and there are considerable risks on the downside. Much of
uncertainty is political," he told a news conference.
The world must "keep resisting the erection of new barriers
to trade", he said.
The WTO has repeatedly revised preliminary estimates over
the past five years as predictions of economic recovery prove
Global trade grew by "an usually low" 1.3 percent in 2016,
the slowest pace since the financial crisis, failing to match
even its revised forecast of 1.7 percent of last September.
"The poor performance over the year was largely due to a
significant slowdown in emerging markets where imports basically
stagnated last year, barely growing in volume terms," Azevedo
In 2018, global trade is forecast to grow by between 2.1
percent and 4 percent in WTO's latest analysis.
"A spike in inflation leading to higher interest rates,
tighter fiscal policies and the imposition of measures to
curtail trade could all undermine higher trade growth over the
next two years," it warned.
U.S. President Donald Trump has made reducing U.S. trade
deficits a key focus of his economic agenda to try to grow
American manufacturing jobs. He has taken particular aim at
renegotiating trade relationships with China and Mexico.
He is considering an executive order to launch a trade
investigation that could lead to supplemental duties in certain
product categories, a Trump administration official told Reuters
"If policymakers attempt to address job losses at home with
severe restrictions on imports, trade cannot help boost growth
and may even constitute a drag on the recovery," Azevedo said in
Asked by reporters about U.S. policies under Trump, he said
that he waited confirmation of the new U.S. Trade Representative
"We are waiting to see the new trade team really in place,
waiting for the new USTR to be confirmed so that we can have a
more meaningful dialogue at this point in time we don't have
that. We are still waiting to see how the trade policy itself is
going to shape up in the United States."
Azevedo declined to comment on the upcoming French election,
"Uncertainty has a freezing effect on investments and
therefore on economic growth and output
"Getting over the election cycles is important particularly
in the major economies so we have a clear view of what is
coming, what the policies are. Predictability is extremely
important for investments and economic growth."
(Reporting by Stephanie Nebehay; Editing by Andrew Heavens)