* Expectations of optimistic ECB tone help euro
* Dollar index just off 7-month high
* Odds now point to December U.S. rate rise
* Eyes on China GDP, ECB, U.S. presidential debate
(Updates after start of European trade)
By Patrick Graham
LONDON, Oct 17 The euro steadied on Monday ahead
of a meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on expectations
that officials are beginning to consider reining in the volume
of extra emergency aid they give to the euro zone economy next
The dollar has had its best fortnight for more than a year
against a basket of currencies, up 2.5 percent since the
start of October, but the shift upwards in U.S. bond yields
behind that move looks to be running out of steam.
On the European side of the equation, the ECB is still
expected at some stage to announce an extension of its
quantitative easing programme past March of next year.
But there is speculation that the bank, like many of its
peers, is at least beginning to question the wisdom of an
endless policy of money-printing and ultra-low interest rates
that put persistent downwards pressure on the euro.
"The market broadly sees that the ECB is going to be
somewhat more positive on the outlook for Europe this week,"
Citi's G10 FX strategist in London, Richard Cochinos, said.
"They still will need to announce more accommodative policy
next year, but it does seem that they may also believe the need
for ever greater accommodation is decreasing. That is leaving
the euro positive on the (non-dollar) crosses."
The euro, which fell below $1.10 for the first time in
almost three months last week, gained 0.1 percent in early
The dollar index was up 0.1 percent at 98.104 after
touching 98.158, its highest since March 10.
Another big element of the rise in the past fortnight has
been a retreat in the yen from levels around 100 per dollar. The
U.S. currency was flat on the day at 104.15 yen on Monday
after rising to as high as 104.480 on Friday.
The dollar took support on Friday from strong U.S. retail
sales and producer price data for September, another sign that
the U.S. economy regained momentum in the third quarter after a
lacklustre first half.
Speculators lifted favourable bets on the dollar for a third
straight week, with net longs hitting their highest in more than
eight months, according to Reuters calculations and data from
the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released on
The CFTC data showed speculators cut yen net longs to 45,000
contracts from roughly 70,000 the week before.
"For now, support for dollar/yen is likely to come from
passive selling of the yen involving winding down of positions,
rather than active, speculative selling," FPG Securities
president, Koji Fukaya, said.
"A December (U.S.) rate hike is mostly priced in by the
market. The key to further dollar strength is how far U.S.
long-term rates can climb."
The 10-year Treasury yield hit another 4-month
high in early London trade, but shorter-dated paper is off last
(Additional reporting by Shinichi Saoshiro; Editing by Louise