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UPDATE 2-BlackRock's Doll sees greater chance of US recession

Thu Mar 13, 2008 11:57pm IST
 
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(Adds poll figures, fresh comment)

By Jennifer Ablan and Herbert Lash

NEW YORK, March 13 (Reuters) - Investors on Wall Street are taking a dimmer view of the U.S. economy, with some believers in growth like Bob Doll at BlackRock now saying the probability of a recession has increased after February's weak jobs data.

Doll said on Thursday he cut his year-end target for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX and he predicted a deeper cut than before in a key U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate.

"Fair to say we think it's a dicier call to say 'no recession,'" Doll told Reuters in an interview.

While Doll, a widely followed strategist on Wall Street, has turned more cautious on the economy, he emphasized that a recession would be mild and short-lived.

"Either way -- that is, narrowly skirting or a mild recession -- we still believe the deeper bearish economic outlook is not likely," Doll said.

Doll's outlook is brighter than others on Wall Street. A Reuters poll of economists on Wednesday showed a median 60 percent chance of an outright recession, which they said likely started in the current quarter if not late last year. That was up sharply from 45 percent last month and in January.

The February employment report "does increase the probability that economic recession may well be a reality in the U.S.," Doll said.  Continued...

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