* Global wheat stocks seen falling to four-year low
* Maize crop forecast raised, India, China outlook cited
(Adds quotes, details, background)
By Nigel Hunt
LONDON, July 2 The International Grains Council
on Monday cut its forecast for global wheat production in
2012/13 as the outlook for the crop in key exporter Russia
World wheat production was cut to 665 million tonnes from a
previous forecast of 671 million and now stands well below the
prior season's 695 million.
"The outlook for world wheat production in 2012/13 continued
to be affected by unfavourable weather conditions in some
countries including a further deterioration in crop expectations
in Russia," the IGC said in a monthly report.
The IGC cut its forecast for Russia's wheat crop by 6
million tonnes to 49 million tonnes.
A Reuters poll last week produced a median forecast for
Russia's wheat crop of 50.5 million tonnes, down from the prior
season's 56.2 million.
The IGC also downwardly revised its forecast for Ukraine's
wheat crop by 1 million tonnes to 13.0 million, slightly below
the median estimate in the Reuters poll of 13.6 million.
The EU's wheat outlook was, however, upwardly revised to
132.1 million tonnes from 131.2 million and the U.S. wheat crop
forecast was raised to 60.5 million from 59.0 million.
"Results from the U.S. harvest were generally better than
expected, while recent rains helped crops in parts of the EU to
show some recovery from the less than ideal conditions earlier
in the season," the IGC said.
The IGC forecast world wheat stocks at the end of the
2012/13 season at 182 million tonnes, a decline of 17 million
tonnes from a year earlier and a four-year low.
World maize production in 2012/13 was upwardly revised by 4
million tonnes to a record 917 million tonnes.
"While the market has been focusing on deteriorating U.S.
conditions for maize, prospects elsewhere have become brighter,
particularly in China and India," the IGC said.
"However, the risks are on the downside unless U.S. weather
The maize crop in China, the world's number two producer,
was raised by 6 million tonnes to 195 million and India's by 1
million tonnes to 22 million. The U.S. maize crop was cut by 5
million tonnes to 350 million.
Global maize stocks at the end of the 2012/13 season were
downwardly revised by 4 million tonnes to 137 million but were
still above the prior season's 129 million tonnes.
"After three successive drawdowns, the global (maize)
carryover is forecast to rise, with an increase in the US
offsetting generally tighter stocks elsewhere, notably in
Brazil," the IGC said.
(Reporting by Nigel Hunt; Editing by Alison Birrane)