FACTBOX: Checking the U.S. economy's vital signs

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Data over the next couple of months should provide a clearer signal on whether the U.S. economy is indeed beginning to recover or merely pausing before another downturn.

Most economists think the recession will end in the third quarter, although there is considerable debate over the strength of recovery and the risk of a recession relapse.

Here are some of the vital signs that economists and investors are watching as they track the economy's path:

HOUSING:

* Inventories of unsold homes provide the best forward-looking measure. The latest figures from the National Association of Realtors shows the supply of unsold existing homes was 3.8 million at the end of May. At the May sales pace, it would take 9.6 months to clear that supply.

In 1999, before the housing boom, there was typically a five or six months' supply of unsold homes. Economists say it may take years to get back to that sort of level, but they would like to see the overhang continue to shrink.

Supply has come down by 1.3 months from a year ago and a move below nine months would be an encouraging sign.

JOBS:

* Unemployment tends to keep rising long after recessions end, so even the more optimistic economists think job losses will continue to pile up through the end of the year.