October 14, 2016 / 1:52 AM / 10 months ago

惠譽將台灣的主權評等上調至‘AA-’,展望穩定

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) HONG KONG, October 13 (Fitch) 惠譽評等已將台灣的長期外幣及本幣發行人違約評等由‘A+’上調至‘AA-’級,展望為穩定。惠譽同時將台灣之主順為無擔保本幣債券的評等由‘A+’上調至‘AA-’。國 家評等上限由‘AA’調整為‘AA+’,短期本幣和外幣發行人違約評等確認為‘F1+’。 關鍵評等驅動因素 發行人違約評等的上調反映了以下關鍵評等驅動因素: 台灣的財政狀況繼續穩步改善,儘管面臨經濟增速放緩的挑戰。2015年,台灣的實質GDP成長率放緩至0.65%,但2016年的各級政府餘額盈餘達到GDP的0.1%, 是近20年內的首次盈餘。惠譽預計2016年的預算餘額將比官方目標更強勁,因為稅收征管強勁、支出管理審慎。惠譽預測2016年的預算赤字為GDP的0.7%,低於我們 此前預計的1.2%,足以使公共債務維持降低的趨勢。 2016年5月上任的新一屆政府的財政赤字目標大體與前一屆政府相同。擬定的2017年中央政府預算將收入增長定為1.3%、開支增幅定為1.1%、赤字目標定為GDP的 0.9%。惠譽預計2017年各級政府總赤字為GDP的1.0%,其中中央政府赤字為GDP的0.6%(低於預算0.33個基點)、地方政府水準赤字較低。我們的預測反映 出惠譽認為開支將低於預算,至少自1975年以來台灣每年的開支均低於預算。 2015年各級政府債務總額下降至GDP的42.8%,低於‘A’類評等國家51.3%的中值。總體上與‘AA’類評等國家39.4%的中值相符合。各級政府債務總額相比 2012年時47.6%的最高點已經下降接近5基點,這是因為政府採取的一項多年度財政整合措施,即“財政健全方案”。惠譽預計在2016-2018年的預測期間,各級政 府債務總額將保持下行趨勢,但下降的速度將放緩,因為經濟面臨全球貿易總量和國內需求疲軟的影響。惠譽認為財政融資風險較低,平均債務到期期限為11.2年,平均借款成本 為1.9%,債務會以本地貨幣計價。 該發行人違約評等的還反映了以下關鍵評等驅動因素: 穩健的外部資金仍然是台灣的核心信貸實力。2015年,經常帳戶餘額上升至占GDP的14.5%,是近期內的最高紀錄,惠譽預計2016年的外部資金情況將大致相似。結構 性經常帳戶順差已促進了外匯儲備的積累,並且強化了主權資產負債表。惠譽預計,2016年的主權國外淨資產將增長至占GDP的84%,遠高於‘AA’類評等國家的中值38 .2%。惠譽還認為2016年台灣的外匯儲備覆蓋率將增長至經常性帳戶開支的17.7倍,高於‘AA’及‘A’類評等國家分別為4.3倍和4.2倍的中值。 近期的GDP增長疲軟,中期增長前景受到不利的人口統計以及中國大陸國內供應鏈增強對台灣出口競爭力的威脅的影響。2016年第二季度,實際GDP同比增長0.7%,而此 前三個季度內的實際GDP均降低。自2015年第一季度起,淨出口首次為GDP增長做出積極貢獻,但國內需求仍然較為疲軟。在對2016年增長率為1%的預期中,惠譽預計 2016年下半年增長將適度加快,增速低於1.22%的官方增長預測。惠譽認為2017年和2018年內GDP增長將加速,分別達到1.5%和2%。 自2015年9月其,政策利率下調了四次,但在最近一次央行理監事會議上,央行未調整政策利率,因為國內經濟的復甦以及通貨膨脹前景溫和。集資成本降低已經為預算中的其他 部分增加開支提供了一定的空間,包括教育和基礎設施上的開支。惠譽預計在評等期內,政策仍將保持寬鬆,因為通貨膨脹壓力較低、經濟表現仍然低於其潛力。 惠譽認為,台灣的大型銀行系統及槓桿率較高的私人部門仍然是主權資產負債表的潛在風險,但資產品質及資本金水準仍然強勁。截至2016年7月底,減值貸款占總貸款的1.2 %,且撥備充足。2016年第二季度末的加權平均資本充足率為13.0%,已經超過了在巴塞爾協議III下到2018年底達到10.5%的最低監管要求。惠譽估計截至20 16年上半年,金融業在中國大陸的風險敞口已降低至銀行業資產的6.2%(2015年底時為6.7%),並繼續低於其他地區銀行系統,包括香港(28%)、澳門(26%) 和新加坡(13%)。 海峽兩岸關係自民進黨主席蔡英文於2016年5月就職總統以來,已經冷卻,但並沒有改變台灣的主權信譽度。自政府變化後,中國的台灣事務辦公室已暫停官方往來,中國大陸遊 客人數減少。惠譽認為在評等期內兩岸關係不太可能進一步解凍,但現有的經濟及貿易聯繫將繼續不間斷運行。 主權評等模型(SRM)及定性疊加(QO) 惠譽特有的SRM模型給予台灣的評分等同於‘AA’級長期外幣發行人違約評等。 惠譽的主權評等委員會應用QO調整了SRM模型的結果,得到了最終的長期外幣發行人違約評等結果,與同級受評國家相比,結果如下: - 結構性特定:-1子級,以反映台灣與中國大陸的複雜關係使經濟及政治動盪發生的可能性升高。 惠譽的SRM模型是惠譽特有的多元回歸評等模型,其中採用了18個變數的三年平均數(包括一年的預測),以得到等同於長期外幣發行人違約評等的得分。惠譽的QO是前瞻性定 性框架,用於調整SRM模型的結果,以得到能夠反映惠譽評等方法中的不能完全量化及/或SRM模型不能全面反映的評等因素的最終評等。 評等敏感性 負面:可能單獨或共同導致惠譽採取負面評等行動的未來發展因素包括: -出現不利的宏觀經濟或金融震盪,削弱中期增長前景並影響公共債務,例如中國大陸出現硬著陸。 -銀行業的資產品質快速惡化,因私營部門槓桿率及中國大陸風險敞口帶來宏觀審慎風險。 可能導致正面評等行動的主要因素為: - 恢復較高的經濟增長水準,使人均收入提升至更接近同等國家的水準 關鍵評等假設 - 區域地緣政治緊張局勢沒有嚴重升級 Contact: Primary Analyst Andrew Fennell Director +852 2263 9925 Fitch (Hong Kong) Limited 19/F Man Yee Building 68 Des Voeux Road Central Hong Kong Secondary Analyst Sagarika Chandra Associate Director +852 2263 9921 Committee Chairperson Jan Friederich Senior Director +852 2263 9910 Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com Media Relations: Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. 註:此為中文譯本,若與原英文版本有任何出入,請以英文版為準。 編輯附註:惠譽國內評等係依該市場需求或於主權評等相對較低的國家中,提供各受評機構相對信用品質指標。該國國內信用風險最低者,其評等為‘AAA’,該國其餘受評機構或 債券之評等即以此作為相對衡量基準。國內評等主要提供予該國市場之國內投資人參考使用,並加註受評機構所屬國家的專屬標記以茲識別,如‘AAA(twn)’即為台灣之國內 評等。因此,不同國家之國內評等無法跨國比較。 Applicable Criteria Country Ceilings (pub. 16 Aug 2016) here Sovereign Rating Criteria (pub. 18 Jul 2016) here Additional Disclosures Solicitation Status here Endorsement Policy here ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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