December 13, 2016 / 10:08 AM / 8 months ago

惠譽:川蔡通話突顯台灣與中國雙邊關係降溫

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) HONG KONG/SINGAPORE, December 13 (Fitch) 惠譽表示,美國總統當選人川普與台灣總統蔡英文最近的電話交談,以及事後川普關於「一個中國」政策的言論,皆顯示美中關係可能有所轉變,且兩岸關係可能進一步降溫。惠譽對 台灣的主權評等已考量台灣與中國大陸的複雜關係,除非緊張局勢升級至導致宏觀經濟或金融震盪的發生機率大幅增加,否則此一評等不會受影響。惠譽仍認為此一結果為尾端風險, 然而這方面的風險確已升高。 蔡英文贏得 2016 年 1 月的總統大選後,兩岸關係已明顯降溫。蔡總統固然公開重申了維持兩岸關係現狀的意願,卻未在「一中各表」的基礎上承認「九二共識」,過去國民黨政府曾以其作為核心政策,北 京政府則將其視為海峽兩岸進行官方對話的先決條件。此後,北京政府的台灣事務辦公室已暫時中止官方往來,年初至今的中國大陸來台遊客人數亦減少約 10%。 即便如此,中國與台灣之間的多項經濟協議(包括 2010 年的海峽兩岸經濟合作架構協議),皆未受到重大影響。蔡英文當選總統後,台灣商品對中國的出口的穩定度甚至略優於台灣對全球其他國家的出口。根據惠譽的基本假設,大體而言 ,兩岸關係降溫仍然不會影響中國與台灣的貿易。 川普與蔡英文的電話交談不足以改變此一看法,卻導致中國外交部向歐巴馬政府提出正式抗議,兩岸關係的敏感性可見一斑。此後川普便在公開評論中質疑美國長期支持「一個中國」 政策的做法,並暗示他可能願意以其作為美中雙方的協商籌碼,此舉可能帶來更多壓力。 台灣與中國大陸的互動對台灣經濟的影響極大。台灣對中國與香港的出口額占出口總額的將近40%。此外,中國大陸是台灣對外直接投資的首要對象,亦為重要 的生產中心,為台灣製造商提供較低的勞動成本與投資方面的優惠政策。一旦貿易關係中斷,台灣企業的供應鍊或將停擺。對台灣而言,觀光業是相對較小的產業,其 產值在GDP中所佔用的比重低於2%,大陸訪客在所有遊客中所佔用的比重卻超過三分之一。 正因如此,若兩岸關係惡化的程度足以嚴重影響貿易與投資關係,台灣經濟或將面臨更多挑戰,目前台灣已有人口老化,全球需求疲弱,中國大陸廠商在價值鏈中不斷升級而損及台灣 出口競爭力等問題。 惠譽已於 2016 年 10 月將台灣的主權評等由 'A+' 上調至 'AA-',主因在於台灣最近的公共財政有所改善。此一評等同時反映了台灣經濟增長展望不如獲得同類評等的國家,台灣評等在中期內進一步獲得調升的機率可能受到該因素限制 。 註:此為中文譯本,若與原英文版本有任何出入,請以英文版為準。 Contact: Andrew Fennell Director Sovereigns +852 2263 9925 Fitch (Hong Kong) Limited 19/F Man Yee Building 68 Des Voeux Road Central Hong Kong Dan Martin Senior Analyst Fitch Wire +65 6796 7232 Media Relations: Leslie Tan, Singapore, Tel: +65 67 96 7234, Email: leslie.tan@fitchratings.com; Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. 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