Hype, expectation herald budget release

By Tony Munroe

MUMBAI (Reuters) - The run-up to the annual budget, always a spectacle of expectation, is especially fevered this year after a decisive election and precarious global economy added pressure on the government to deliver big initiatives even as it manages a heavy deficit.

From ministries and industries making public demands to saturation media coverage, the tone of anticipation to the release of the budget, scheduled this year for Monday, is closer to that of a big sporting event or national election.

Unrealistic hopes will be disappointed, budget watchers warn.

"Basically it's become like a free-for-all," said Andrew Holland, chief executive for equities at Ambit Capital in Mumbai and a veteran investment banker in India.

"When I first came here 10 years ago, these ministries would go, make their recommendations and so forth, and that would be about it. But now they walk out of there saying we want this, we want that, and it becomes market expectations," he said.

India's bond market moves on speculation over the government's borrowing plans, while share prices move on talk of incentives or tax cuts for industries, infrastructure spending plans and liberalisation of foreign investment rules.

Much of the anticipation is focused on the direction the second administration of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will take now that the Congress-led ruling coalition can act more freely than it did when it depended on leftists in the last government.

"This year, it's different: there is a much stronger government at the centre, and we're in the thick of a global economic crisis. So there's a lot of expectation of the government," said Manoj Vohra, director of research at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).