POLL - BSE Sensex seen rising another 12 pct by year-end

By Pratish Narayanan

MUMBAI (Reuters) – The BSE Sensex is set to gain another 12 percent by the end of 2009, taking its rise for the year to 60 percent, as an economic revival boosts corporate earnings and attracts liquidity, a Reuters poll shows.

The results from the latest survey of 16 analysts taken after the government tabled a budget that elicited no surprises but a thumbs-down from financial markets the day it was presented, are virtually unchanged from a poll taken on May 22.

The benchmark 30-share BSE index will reach 15,500 points by December-end, up from its Tuesday close of 13,853.70, the median forecast showed.

Of all the 16 major world stock market indexes polled quarterly by Reuters, the expected 60 percent gain for the year as a whole was topped only by Russia, where shares are expected to end the year 76 percent higher.

The highest forecast had India's benchmark index jumping 30 percent to 18,000 by the end of the year, while the most bearish forecast predicted a decline of 24 percent to 10,500.

The index closed 2008 at 9,647.31.

"I expect the market to be muted on the back of expectations for a better fiscal-year 2011 but poor fiscal-year 2010," said Phani Sekhar, a fund manager at Angel Broking.

"Liquidity will determine our course in the near term, but a revival in earnings will be the catalyst for the market to go up."