January 22, 2013 / 10:34 PM / 5 years ago

TEXT - Fitch cuts Maine's GO rating to 'AA'

Jan 22 - In the course of routine surveillance, Fitch Ratings has downgraded
the rating on the state of Maine's approximately $472 million general obligation
(GO) bonds to 'AA' from 'AA+'.  

Fitch has also downgraded the rating on $1.4 billion of the Maine Municipal Bond
Bank's General Resolution bonds, supported by the state's moral obligation to 
replenish the debt service fund, to 'A+' from 'AA-'.  The rating on the General 
Resolution bonds is directly linked to the state's GO rating.  

The Rating Outlook is revised to Stable from Negative.

SECURITY

The state's full faith, credit, and taxing power are pledged to the GO bonds.  
Constitutional provisions provide for the payment of GO principal and interest 
from first general

fund revenues should the debt service appropriation not be sufficient.

RATING SENSITIVITY/KEY RATING DRIVERS

CONTINUED BUDGET PRESSURES BALANCES:  The downgrade reflects the state's 
persistent budget gaps despite repeated balancing actions.  Another sizable 
imbalance emerged for the current year with revenue underperformance exacerbated
by growing Medicaid costs.  The administration's proposed mid-year adjustments 
include several one-time measures.  Maine is also preparing a new biennial 
budget and the 'AA' rating reflects Fitch's expectation that the adopted 
biennial budget will primarily rely on recurring expense or revenue adjustments 
to achieve balance in FYs 2014 and 2015.       

CONSERVATIVE DEBT POSITION: Debt ratios remain low and amortization of GO bonds 
is rapid.  Following pension reforms adopted in FY 2011, funding levels improved
significantly and the state contributes its actuarially required contribution 
each year.     

RESPONSIVE FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT:  Frequent reviews of economic forecasts and 
financial projections allow the state to adjust to changing conditions. Maine's 
revenue outlook is weak, but the state historically addresses budgetary 
challenges in a timely and proactive manner. The state's active citizen 
initiative and referendum environment creates a level of operating and financial
uncertainty, although expenditure restriction initiatives over the past several 
years have not been successful.

SLOWLY GROWING BUT STABLE ECONOMY:  The state's economy remained more stable 
compared to broader national trends during the recession.  But the recovery that
is underway is sluggish, hampered by weak demographic trends, and continues to 
limit the upside in the state's revenue forecasts.  

CREDIT PROFILE

The one-notch downgrade on Maine's' GO bond rating reflects its reduced 
financial flexibility with weak reserve levels and limited options to address a 
difficult budgetary situation.  Economic forecasts reviewed by Fitch indicate 
the state's economy will remain in a slow-growth mode, which is likely to limit 
revenue improvements.  The 'AA' rating assumes that while the current-year gap 
solutions may include limited one-time measures, the next biennial budget will 
follow the state's historical pattern with primarily sustainable and recurring 
solutions.  Fitch notes that the state faces an increasingly contentious 
decision-making environment.  

Maine's relatively stable economy has expanded into new sectors, particularly 
education and health services, but growth prospects remain modest.  In 2011, 
Maine recorded just 0.1% growth, while national employment began its 
post-recession recovery with 1.1% growth.  More recently, December 2012 
employment for the state declined modestly (0.2%, preliminarily) from the prior 
year, versus national employment growth of 1.4%.  Maine's median age is the 
oldest among the states, 43.2 years compared to 37.3 years for the U.S., 
contributing to uncertainty about future workforce growth

Fiscal operations remain challenged as below-budget revenues are not keeping 
pace with a growing expense base.  Fitch notes that regular reviews of economic 
forecasts and financial projections allow the state to adjust to changing 
conditions.  The December 2012 forecasts led to a downward revision of FY 2013 
general fund revenues by $35.5 million, or 1.2% from budget.  Adding additional 
pressure, Medicaid expenses continue a pattern of outpacing expectations, with a
sizable projected current-year gap in the Medicaid budget of approximately $87 
million.    

In late December, the governor ordered curtailment of agency expenses equivalent
to the $35.5 million revenue shortfall.  Two weeks ago, he proposed a 
supplemental budget for FY 2013 to codify the curtailment and address the 
remainder of the gap.  The proposal relies primarily on expense reductions and 
one-time solutions such as depletion of the state's already modest reserve 
levels, and delaying a school aid payment into fiscal 2014.  Given the magnitude
of the gap with just five months remaining in the fiscal year, Fitch expects the
adopted plan will include at least some one-time measures, further limiting the 
state's future flexibility.

Maine is also beginning its budget adoption process for the biennium beginning 
July 1, 2013 and must address a sizable gap pressured by weaker revenue 
forecasts as previously adopted tax cuts begin to take hold.  The state reported
a $756 million structural current services gap in September 2012 (11.1% of 
projected biennial appropriations), but that gap includes a voter-approved 
increase to education funding that has been deferred since 2004.  Excluding that
measure, the structural gap shrinks to $503 million, or 7.4% of projected 
biennial appropriations.  

Fitch notes that these structural gap estimates do not include the effects of 
the December 2012 revenue forecasts that revised general fund revenues further 
downward over the biennium by $125.2 million.  Both the structural gap estimate 
and the revenue forecast revision include the effects of tax cuts that went into
effect on Jan. 1, which the administration projects will lead to $342 million in
forgone revenues over the biennium.  The governor's biennial budget proposal 
relies primarily on expenditure cuts, including a $200 million suspension of all
municipal revenue sharing.  In the November 2012 elections, legislative control 
flipped to the Democratic Party in both houses, raising the likelihood of 
increased conflict with the Republican governor over the supplemental budget and
the biennial budget.     

Maine's debt ratios are very manageable and GO bond principal is rapidly 
amortized, all within 10 years.  Debt is strongly secured by constitutional 
provisions requiring GO principal and interest to be a first charge on the 
general fund. Net tax-supported debt totals approximately $1 billion, equal to a
moderately low 2.1% of 2011 personal income.  

The governor recently proposed a major bonding initiative that could 
substantively increase the state's debt load.  Revenue bonds, secured by 
projected revenues from a new contract for liquor sales, would repay the state's
$186 million share of a $484 million multi-year Medicaid liability owed to the 
state's hospitals.  Additionally, the state would issue GO bonds totaling $105 
million, previously authorized by voters.  The proposal also includes a $100 
million bond for a new corrections facility, supported by projected savings from
operational changes in the Department of Corrections.    

Funding levels for Maine's pension system, including state employees, teachers 
(both of which the state is legally responsible for), and participating local 
districts improved substantially in FY 2011 following recent reforms.  The 
system-wide funded ratio improved to a reported 80.2 % (78.1% with Fitch's 
liability adjustment of a 7% discount rate) as of June 30, 2011 from 70.4% in 
the prior year.  The ratio remained relatively stable in FY 2012, ending at 79.1
(76.9 % with Fitch's liability adjustment).  As of June 30, 2012, the state's 
pension liabilities for the state employees and teachers plan (which the state 
is wholly responsible for) were 77% funded as reported by the state.  On a 
combined basis, debt plus system-wide pension liabilities of 7.9% are about 
average for U.S. states rated by Fitch.

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