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UPDATE 1-Licht cuts 2009/10 global sugar output forecast

Mon Feb 8, 2010 8:25pm IST

* Licht cuts forecasts for China cane and beet crops

* Bumper 2010/11 crop seen in Brazil if weather normal

(Adds details, quotes)

LONDON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Analyst F.O. Licht on Monday cut its forecast for global sugar production in 2009/10 to 153.9 million tonnes, down from a previous projection of 156.9 million, but still up from 149.9 million in 2008/09.

Licht said the cut reflected downward revisions in a number of Asian countries, Mexico and a small adjustment for Brazil.

"Sugar crops in almost all of the world's key producers - with the EU being the sole exception - have not lived up to initial expectations," Licht said issuing its second estimate of the 2009/10 crop.

"Though there will be a modest rise in global output of about 4.1 million tonnes, the market will remain in deficit in 2009/10," the report added.

Licht put China's cane sugar crop in 2009/10 at 11.32 million tonnes, down from a previous forecast of 12.70 million and now well below the prior season's 12.53 million.

China's beet sugar crop was also revised down to 652,000 tonnes versus a previous forecast of 850,000 and the prior season's 980,000.

Licht said attention was shifting to the outlook for the 2010/11 crop in top producer Brazil with the plentiful rains which hindered the 2009/10 harvest seen helping development.

The analyst also noted that a record 50 million tonnes of cane remained uncut in the fields from the 2009/10 harvest and sugar production lines that are being added to ethanol-only facilities will be ready for crushing in 2010/11.

"With sugar prices still ruling high and providing every incentive for growers to maximise crop care, this will probably result in a bumper rise of cane and sugar output if only average weather conditions are assumed," the report said. (Reporting by Nigel Hunt; Editing by Sue Thomas)



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