Swine flu could infect U.S. trade and travel

By Kyle Peterson

CHICAGO, April 24 (Reuters) - Mexico's deadly swine flu could disrupt trade and travel between the United States and Mexico if it prompts restrictions on the movement of goods across the border or sparks fear in consumers, analysts say.

The potential impact is far from clear as experts race to learn more about the disease, which has claimed the lives of as many as 61 people. But shipping and travel industries are especially vigilant.

"If you end up with a significant demand shift, you could end up with a very substantial effect on our products, whether it be government-imposed restrictions or alternatively if the consumers just decide to say 'no'," said Bob Young, chief economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation.

Since Mexico and Canada are the two largest buyers of U.S. agricultural goods, such restrictions could be a drag on U.S. agriculture, Young said.

The World Health Organization has said it is concerned about 800 "influenza-like" cases in Mexico. The group confirmed the outbreak of a new strain of swine flu in the United States and said about 60 people had died in Mexico. [nN24524032]

Any decision to restrict food shipments due to flu would come from the U.S. Agriculture Department, which has the power to "shut down movement," said Russell Laird, an executive director representing agricultural and food carriers at the American Trucking Associations.

"So far, we haven't heard anything, but if that call is made we'll make sure to do our part," he said.

Katherine Andrus, general counsel for the Air Transport Association (ATA), said the airline trade group is taking its cues from the WHO and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) but that so far there had been no decision to restrict travel between the United States and Mexico.