SCENARIOS-Possible outcomes for Australian carbon trade laws

CANBERRA, July 2 (Reuters) - The passage of landmark climate legislation through the U.S. House of Representatives, and a series of bad polls for Australia's opposition, have raised hopes Australia might pass its carbon trade plans through parliament.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's government is seven votes short of a majority in parliament's upper house Senate, and a vote on the 11 bills which set up the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) has been deferred until August 13.

But opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull said the conservatives will seek to amend the laws, raising hopes of a shift from his policy of wanting to postpone a decision on the laws until 2010 and after climate talks in Copenhagen in December.

The government wants carbon trading to start in July 2011, as a central plank of its policy to fight global warming, but has been unable to break through the political roadblock.

For full coverage and factboxes on the carbon trade debate in Australia and New Zealand, double click on [ID:nSYD32519]. For related analysis, click on [ID:nSP171798]

Here are some possible outcomes for the government.

DEAL WITH OPPOSITION

If the government forces a vote in the Senate when debate resumes in August, the laws in their current form will fail.

The government's best hope of passing the laws is to get the opposition, which has the largest voting bloc in the Senate, to change its stand and support the laws.