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TEXT-Fitch rates Louisville, Jefferson Cty Metro Sewer Dist BANs
November 8, 2012 / 10:47 PM / 5 years ago

TEXT-Fitch rates Louisville, Jefferson Cty Metro Sewer Dist BANs

Nov 8 - Fitch Ratings assigns an 'F1+' rating to the following Louisville
and Jefferson County Metropolitan Sewer District, Kentucky's (the district)
obligations:

--$226.3 million sewer and drainage system subordinated bond anticipation notes
(BANs), series 2012A.

The BANs are expected to be issued competitively on Nov. 15, 2012. Proceeds will
be used to pay and retire the district's outstanding series 2011B BANs.

At this time, Fitch also affirms the following ratings on the district's
outstanding debt:

--$1.2 billion in outstanding sewer and drainage system revenue bonds, series
2001A, 2004A, 2005A, 2006A, 2009C, 2010A, 2011A at 'AA-';

--$226.3 million in outstanding sewer and drainage system subordinated BANs,
series 2011B, at 'F1+'.

The Rating Outlook is Stable.

SECURITY

The BANs are payable from pledged property, which includes the proceeds of a
future bond or note sale as well as a subordinate lien on net revenues from the
sewer and stormwater drainage system (the system), including assessment charged
against new connections. The bonds are payable from net system revenues on a
senior lien basis.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

SOUND FINANCIAL PROFILE: Financial performance is adequate and has improved in
recent in years.

DEMONSTRATED RATE-RAISING ABILITY: The governing body has demonstrated a strong
commitment to raising rates as necessary.

REGULATORY-DRIVEN CAPITAL NEEDS: Debt levels are high at over 2 times (x) the
level for the rating category and may increase further as the district addresses
required regulatory issues. Given the district is nearing the end of its major
construction phase, capital pressures should alleviate over the medium- and
long-term.

STRONG SERVICE AREA: The large and diverse service area is the economic engine
for the state.

LONG-TERM RATING DRIVES SHORT-TERM RATING: The 'F1+' short-term rating considers
the strong credit quality of the district's long-term rating and the district's
anticipated market access to issue bonds whose proceeds would be used to retire
the BANs.

WHAT COULD TRIGGER A RATING ACTION

LACK OF FINANCIAL GAINS: Failure to maintain and ultimately improve financial
metrics over the course of the forecast period would likely lead to negative
rating action on both long and short term ratings given the district's high debt
load. While current projections call for a dip in debt service coverage (DSC)
from current levels, immediate concerns are mitigated by the district's
out-performance of projections and improved financial profile in recent years.

CREDIT SUMMARY

The district provides wastewater collection, treatment, and disposal service as
well as stormwater drainage service to around 720,000 people within the
boundaries of the Louisville/Jefferson County Metro Government (Metro) and
certain outlying areas. Like many large urban wastewater utilities, the
district's wastewater system has encountered periodic sanitary sewer overflows
(SSOs) and combined sewer overflows (CSOs) during wet weather events, which has
led to regulatory action against the district. These actions have culminated
with the district entering into an amended consent decree in 2009 with the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, which superseded a prior consent decree and
which outlines various actions for the district to accomplish in order to
achieve compliance with its discharge permits.

CAPITAL NEEDS DRIVEN BY REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS

The consent decree provides the framework for district actions over a 20-year
period and is estimated to require capital spending of around $850 million. Upon
completion of the consent decree milestones, the district expects to capture and
treat 96% of all CSOs and eliminate a significant amount of SSOs. The bulk of
all capital projects associated with the consent decree are expected to be
implemented over the next couple of years (by fiscal 2014). As the district
completes major projects, capital expenditures are expected to decline
significantly and be much more manageable.

For fiscals 2013-2017, the district's capital improvement program calls for
capital spending and project management of around $438 million (down from $545
million for fiscals 2012-2016), most of which is directly related to consent
decree projects. Funding for these outlays is anticipated to be derived
primarily from prior borrowings, as well as $80 million and $60 million
issuances expected in fiscals 2014 and 2015, respectively. Ongoing rate hikes to
offset the rising debt carrying costs will be necessary to maintain stable
financial metrics.

RATE-RAISING WILLINGESS A SIGNIFICANT CREDIT STRENGTH

The district's board has raised both wastewater and drainage charges almost
continuously since 1991 in an effort to ensure necessary resources for capital
spending. In addition, to raise the wastewater rate base sufficient to fund
required regulatory capital items, the board (with the approval of the Metro
council) implemented a special surcharge in fiscal 2008, effectively boosting
charges by 34%. Since that time the board has adopted additional hikes of 6.5%
for fiscals 2009-2013. While combined wastewater and drainage charges are
slightly elevated, total utility charges (including water) remain below Fitch's
affordability benchmark of 2% of median household income.

SOUND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

Financial margins narrowed as the district's debt service costs increased in
recent years. By fiscal 2007 total DSC had fallen to the district's 1.1x rate
covenant after approaching 2x earlier in the decade. However, the implementation
of the rate surcharge in fiscal 2008 and subsequent hikes have improved DSC. For
fiscal 2011, senior DSC was 1.8x while total DSC was 1.6x. Liquidity was
adequate but somewhat low in fiscal 2011 at 164 days cash.

For unaudited fiscal 2012, the district's financial profile remained largely
unchanged. Senior DSC held at 1.8x for the year but all-in DSC slipped slightly
to 1.5x. Offsetting the weakened DSC, liquidity improved for the third straight
year, rising to a respectable 222 days cash.

PROJECTED DECLINES TO DSC

The district's latest forecast for fiscal 2013-2017 anticipates DSC at levels
below those for unaudited fiscal 2012. The district projects overall DSC at 1.3x
for fiscals 2013-2014, followed by a drop to 1.2x in fiscal 2015 before
improving to 1.4x by fiscal 2017. These coverage levels are below prior
forecasts and reportedly are due to a reduction in capitalized operating and
maintenance costs from prior forecasts which causes these expenses to appear in
the income statement as opposed to flowing straight to the balance sheet.

Fitch is concerned about the proposed reduced margins and notes that declining
coverage commensurate with the district's projections could result in negative
rating action. However, somewhat mitigating this concern is the district's
favorable actual performance relative to previous forecasts, which included
projected total DSC for fiscals 2011 and 2012 at just 1.2x.

STRONG AND DIVERSE SERVICE TERRITORY

Metro (general obligation bonds rated 'AAA' by Fitch) serves as the major
economic engine of the state. The area's job base has diversified over the last
decade from primarily manufacturing to include a strong service component.
Wealth levels are above the state average but about 10% lower than the nation's.
The area has shown strong job growth in recent months, which has narrowed the
gap between Metro's unemployment rate (8.9% in July 2012) to the state and
national averages of 8.5% and 8.6%, respectively.

Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'. The ratings above
were solicited by, or on behalf of, the issuer, and therefore, Fitch has been
compensated for the provision of the ratings.

In addition to the sources of information identified in the Revenue-Supported
Rating Criteria, this action was additionally informed by information from
Creditscope.

Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
--'Revenue-Supported Rating Criteria', Jun. 12, 2012;
--'U.S. Water and Sewer Revenue Bond Rating Criteria', Aug. 3, 2012;
--'2012 Water and Sewer Medians', Dec. 8, 2011;
--'2012 Outlook: Water and Sewer Sector', Dec. 8, 2011.

Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
2012 Outlook: Water and Sewer Sector
2012 Water and Sewer Medians
U.S. Water and Sewer Revenue Bond Rating Criteria

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