* IEA calls for U.N. climate change deal in Copenhagen
* No deal could mean doubling of oil and gas bills by 2030
* Global energy demand to rise 1.5 pct/yr to 2030 if no deal
* World oil use seen at 105 mln bpd 2030 (prev 106)
(Updates throughout with detail, comments, reaction)
By Muriel Boselli and Barbara Lewis
PARIS/LONDON, Nov 10 World energy use will rise
rapidly over the next 20 years, increasing costs and greenhouse
gases unless a deal is reached to curb carbon dioxide emissions,
the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.
Arguing strongly for a global deal at the U.N. Climate
Change Conference in Copenhagen in December to limit greenhouse
gases, the IEA said use of carbon emitting fossil fuels would
increase quickly if policies remained unchanged.
The world would have to spend an extra $500 billion to cut
carbon emissions for each year it delayed implementing a deal on
global warming, the IEA said in its annual World Energy Outlook.
Without an international agreement on climate change, the
ratio of energy spending to gross domestic product for the
largest consumer countries would double by 2030.
IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol told Reuters in an interview
the world needed to stabilise the concentration of greenhouse
gas emissions in the atmosphere at 450 ppm of CO2 equivalent.
"The world needs to go to the 450 part per million (ppm)
target, not only because of climate change but because of
growing problems within our energy system and its possible
implications again on the economy," Birol said.
The IEA said global energy demand would rise by an average
of 2.5 percent per year over the next five years if governments
made no changes to their existing policies and measures.
FOSSIL FUEL DOMINANCE
Under these circumstances, which the IEA called its
reference scenario, world primary energy demand would rise by an
average of 1.5 percent per year over the next two decades.
Oil demand, excluding biofuels, would increase by 1 percent
per year to 105 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030 from 85
million bpd in 2008. This was a slight decrease in its demand
forecast, reflecting the impact of the global economic downturn.
Last year the agency, which advises 28 industrialised
nations, forecast oil demand would reach 106 million bpd by
2030. It previously, saw primary energy demand growth at 1.6
percent per year on average from 2006-2030.
But the IEA stressed the trend towards heavier use of
hydrocarbons would be unabated without a climate change deal.
"Fossil fuels remain the dominant sources of primary energy
worldwide in the reference scenario, accounting for more than
three-quarters of the overall increase in energy use between
2007 and 2030," the World Energy Outlook said.
Natural gas demand would increase 1.5 percent per year to
4.3 trillion cubic metres (tcm) in 2030, under this scenario.
The main driver of demand for coal and gas would be
inexorable growth in energy needs for power generation, it said,
forecasting in its reference scenario that world electricity
demand would grow by 2.5 percent per year to 2030.
Stressing the need to move away from dependence on fossil
fuels, Birol said that without a climate change deal, the
European Union's annual energy bill would more than double to
$500 billion by 2030, up from $160 billion in the last 30 years.
Oil prices CLc1 soared to a record of nearly $150 a barrel
in July last year. They then collapsed to less than $33 last
December, but have since recovered to around $80.
The price collapse, combined with the credit crisis, choked
off investment and the Paris-based IEA has warned the oil market
could surge back, damaging still fragile economic growth.
Birol said the oil price was likely to reach $100 per barrel
by 2015 and $190 by 2030: "This means that if we don't do
anything to our energy system, we will be in difficulty."
Bank of Ireland analyst Paul Harris said the IEA had taken a
"rather cautious approach" in the report.
"There's an emerging consensus that the demand and supply
balance is really going to start to tighten by 2015 which should
sound the death knell for cheap oil."
For a graphic on primary energy demand:
For a graphic on oil supply comparing OPEC and non-OPEC:
(Writing by Christopher Johnson; editing by William Hardy)