October 3, 2016 / 11:47 PM / 10 months ago

IFR Markets ForexWatch Asia Regional Daily Briefing

8 Min Read

SYDNEY, Oct 4 (IFR) - Market Briefs
    * US ISM Sept mfg PMI 51.5 vs f/c 50.3, 49.4 prev 

    * US ISM new orders rebound, employment beats but still  contracting    

    * Colombia peso pummeled after voters reject peace accord

    * Colombian government, rebels hope to revive peace deal after vote 

    * Moody's says Colombia peace deal rejection is credit-negative

    * Colombia peace deal rejection could complicate fiscal adjustment strategy
-S&P

    * Canada tightens mortgage, tax rules in latest bid to cool housing

    * Chile c.bank considered cut before deciding to hold in Sept  

    * Brazil manufacturing PMI 46.0 vs prev 45.7

    * Brazil manufacturing exports tumble on stronger currency-Rtrs 

    * Saudi cabinet says eager for oil market stability   

    * Mexico's Carstens: Better to act preemptively on inflation risk   


Macro Themes in Play
    * Markets lower as bank sector continues to struggle; Japan, Europe problem
spots but leaking into US market; German markets closed, takes spotlight off of
Commerz and DB for a day

    * US data mixed; better ISM pushes Dec rate hike chances  near 6-in-10 but
weak Construction Spending has street downgrading Q3 GDP, Atlanta Fed model down
to 2.2%, had started off at 3.8%

    * USD broadly higher on back of firmer rates; DXY still wedged in range but
break of support in gold/gold miners hinting at upward move; EUR, JPY slightly
lower but action still undecisive

    * Cable crashes through support despite big PMI beat; FTSE likes weaker
currency, back looking at record highs; CAD, MXN better with oil; AUD
impressive, ignores soft copper/gold

    * Crude up for fourth day, breaks out


Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
    * 0:30  AU  Building Approvals  Aug    -7.00% f/c, 11.30% -prev

    * 0:30  AU  ANZ Newspaper Job Ads Sep  -5.00% -prev

    * 0:30  AU  ANZ Internet Job Ads Sep         1.80% -prev

    * 5:00  JP  Consumer Confid. Index Sep     42.0   -prev

    * N/A   NZ  Dairy Prices 2wk                        1.70% -prev

    * N/A   NZ  Milk Auctions 2wk                  2975.0T  -prev


Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
    * 0330 GMT - Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision


Currency Summaries
EUR/USD  
    * Pair holds basically 1.1220/40 range in Europe's morning, NY opens near
range top

    * Slight bear pressure early on as the USD & UST yields firms a bit

    * September ISM well above f/c, employment & new order components beat as
well

    * USD bid intensifies as UST yields rally, EUR/USD drop accelerates, 1.1205

    * Action settles & USD bid stalls, EUR/USD bounces slightly, near 1.1215
late in the day

    * Limited data tomorrow, action likely subdued again as mkt awaits US jobs
report

 
USD/JPY 
    * Other than a leg up from the ISM Mfg beat, USD/JPY traders bided their
time

    * Prices have been on the rsie since failing to take out key props by 100

    * But the rebound looks like a mean reversion within a downtrend

    * The Kijun & M-T dn TL by 102.20 reinforce the 102.22/3.25 Cloud cover

    * JP Consumer Confidence for Sep out Tues seen near Aug's dreary 42 

    * Likely to see more consolidation, until Wed's ADP & ISM Services data

    * GBP/JPY the main mover among the majors on future Brexit worries

    * Cross help above the post-Brexit up TL at 129.70; 128.81 Brexit low

    * EUR/JPY lingering just below the Kijun, 50% Fibo & Cloud hurdles

 
USD/CHF
    * EUR/CHF rebounded from Fri's failed attempt to test the SNB's 1.08
soft-floor

    * Total sight deposits were up 8.3mln last week, hinting at SNB bidding

    * Monday's 1.0927 high stopped a tic from 61.8% of Sep's drop at 1.0928

    * Swiss Sept PMI came in at its highest since May at 53.2 in Sept vs 51 last

    * US ISM Mfg index beat f/c lending USD/CHF a little

    * Likely to see more consolidation, until Wed's ADP & ISM Services data

    * Swiss Sep CPI is out Thur and seen near 0 y/y 

 
GBP/USD   
    * Cable fell to 1.2845 & EUR/GBP rose to 0.8748 during European am

    * GBP sold on word PM May said Article 50 to be triggered by Q1 end

    * Cable had a brief bounce on the UK PMI beat 

    * NY took it to a new 1.2818 low, very close to the post-Brexit 1.2798 low

    * US ISM Mfg beat f/c, providing the nudge to new intraday lows

    * New multi-year EUR/GBP high at 0.8748 near Aug '13 high at 0.8770

    * Looking for a monthly close above 0.8708, the post-GFC drop's 61.8%

    * UK Sep Construction PMI & MPC Saunders on tap Tues 

 
USD/CAD
    * USD/CAD 1.3068/3137, Noram 1.3076/3144, close 1.3115 (NY +35 pips)

    * Strong US PMI & soft RBC PMI data boosted the buck [page:2417] 

    * Oil +0.85/+1.25% (WTI/Brent) in light volumes 

    * DXY +0.26% (+0.17% NY); UST/CA 2Y sprd +1.7bp, 26.1; S&P -0.5% (-0.45% NY)

    * CAD/JPY +0.32%, 77.45, AUD/CAD +0.1%, 1.0058; EUR/CAD 1.4705 -0.28% 

    * Tue- Light day, no local data NY ISM index, Redbook [page:2417]

 
AUD/USD     
    * NY open's just below Europe's 0.7681 high, bear pressure early as USD if
firm

    * USD bid intensifies after ISM data is above f/c, AUD/USD slips to 0.7654

    * Dip gets bought as USD lift abates and equities rally form the day's lows

    * Pair nears 0.7680/90 resistance zone again late in the day

    * Mkt now awaits RBA, no cut f/c, Lowe's rhetoric on AUD level to get most
focus


NZD/USD
    * Rally in Europe's morning stalls short of the 10-DMA, dip sees NY open
near 0.7280

    * USD firms in early NY while AUD/NZD stays bid, sharp drop for NZD/USD seen

    * US ISM beat keeps bear pressure on, pair hits 0.7254, can't break solid
s-t support though

    * USD rise stalls and risk sentiment improves a bit, bounce takes hold

    * Pair nears 0.7270 late in the day, virtually unchanged on the day

    * RBA might impact via AUD/NZD, Fonterra milk auction tomorrow will get mkt
focus as well

 
LATAM
    * USD/MXN little changed in a 19.2000/4250 sideways chop; London lows

    * O/S markets response to Banxico 50 bp hike. Today's NY high 19.3685

    * US equities slid (financials) S&P -0.5%, Mx Bolsa (IPC) +0.2%

    * USD/BRL -1.6% to 3.2075 by NY close; Bovespa +1.86% BR bond yields lwr

    * BcB reverted to reverse swap auctions again after month end liquidity
injection

    * USD/CLP ends NorAm 659.80, +0.34% with copper -0.85% 

 
Fiscal/monetary policy a balm for Brexit concerns
Today's Canadian July GDP lifted the Loonie but was skewed by the reactivation
of Ft. McMurray's oil sand projects. Most analysts concur the BoC's projection
for Q3 growth of 3.5% annualized is unlikely to be adjusted higher (the Big Five
Canadian banks are in the 3.0/3.5% area even after today's data). USD/CAD's
closing the week c 1.3125, 1.2% below Tuesday's high. OPEC's production
reduction plan, and oil's subsequent rally, was the catalyst. However, WTI is
stalling below the psychological USD 50 bbl level. There are some doubts OPEC
production cuts will be adhered to and there's also concern that US frackers
will start pumping again. US frackers' lower costs are way below the USD 70 bbl
required to commence new oil sand projects, so whilst old wells can operate at
USD 40 bbl, US frackers can uncap pre- drilled wells c USD 45-55 bbl. CAD
remains vulnerable and USD/CAD is a buy dips proposition.

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