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SYDNEY, Oct 5 (IFR) - Market Briefs * ECB said to build taper consensus as QE decision time nears-BBG * Fed hawk Lacker: strong case to hike, preemptive rises likely needed * Euro zone bond yields, euro jump on report of ECB plan for QE tapering * Britain should not expect to pre-negotiate on Brexit-German deputy finmin * Britain will minimise Brexit risk to financial centre-minister * Brazil's Goldfajn says there is no set time frame for rate cuts * IMF says global growth to stay weak, warns of populist fallout * IMF says sees weaker 2016 growth in U.S. at 1.6 pct * Dairy prices fall, volumes drop at auction -NZ's Fonterra * Philippine leader tells Obama 'go to hell', says can buy arms from Russia, China Macro Themes in Play * Markets lower as Fed Dec rate hike odds edge up to 6-in-10, highest in months; ECB talks tapering of bond purchases just in time for IMF to sharply downgrade prospects for global trade volume, Euro and Japan bank sectors remain on edge * ECB statements aimed at steepening yield curve, attempt to help banks, same thought process as BOJ, undo damage to financials from NIRP; problem becomes that EM and spread markets are priced for easy central bank accommodation well beyond the horizon * Bond yields spike, metals collapse, DXY above 200 dma for first time since July; commodity market stable but vulnerable * EUR saved at 200 dma by ECB statements; USDJPY up on US rates, Nikkei futures teasing through 200 dma, sustained break would be good for long USDJPY trade; Cable still finding no buyers despite second day of big data * AUD, CAD, MXN lower, nervous that commodity rally could fall apart with higher rates/USD; EEM breaks hard Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT) * 22:30 AU AIG Services Index Sep 45-prev * 00:30 AU Retail Sales MM Aug 0.20% f/c, 0.00% -prev Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT) * No significant events Currency Summaries EUR/USD * Heavy in Europe's morning as pair dragged lower with GBP/USD, NY opens near 1.1175 * Bear pressure persists in early NY as USD bid intensifies, pair drops to 1.1138 low * BBG story citing ECB sources on tapering scenarios leads to sharp spike higher * Shorts scramble to cover and 1.1240 is neared, USD bids remains resilient though * Pair dips near 1.1180 before ending the day just above 1.1200 * Pair remains stuck within broad range, likely to do so until jobs report on Friday * EZ Sep Markit Services PMI & US Sep ISM non-Mfg PMI are data risks tomorrow USD/JPY * O/N buy-stop run above 21-DMA & Kijun claimed Sep 21 CB-day high in NY * Sep 21's 102.79 high cleared, but 103 holding so far & Cloud top @103.25 * JPY weaker across-the-board as USD firms on hopes of Fed tightening * Key US ISM non-mfg & ADP on tap Wed to set tone into Fri's jobs report * Oil a shade softer, but recent rise is seen as USD/JPY friendly * EUR/JPY rallied most of the way thru Cloud cover on ECB taper talk (bbg) * Cross hasn't closed above its Cloud in a year, so a major trend marker * GBP & JPY weakness was offsetting AUD/JPY above 100-DMA * JP Sep Nikkei Services PMI out Wed after a 50.4 Mfg result USD/CHF * EUR/CHF is rapidly closing the gap on Sep's 1.1000 high (Jun's at 1.1010) * Fresh legs for the rebound begun on Fri from Bbg story on ECB tapering * A close above 1.10 & the '16 dn TL at 1.103s is needed to target 1.12 again * USD/CHF riding broad USD buying past the 200-DMA & mid-Sep highs * Close to 200-DMA at 0.9798 heading into the NY close * Bulls watching key US data Wed ahead of Fri's jobs report GBP/USD * EUR/GBP got an extra boost to 0.8802 on ECB tapering story (Bbg) * That high is by the top of the rising channel off July & Sep lows * Hard to fight the hard-Brexit trend, but if 0.88 holds again, may get pullback * UBS reiterates its EUR/GBP 1.00 forecast "for the end of 2017" * Feb 2013 peak at 0.8815 is the next historical hurdle * Cable's post-Brexit low break to new 31-yr lows is probing channel support * The dn channel off Sep's high is at 1.2714 today & 1.2690 on Wed * Street looking for 1.2500 as a nice round next target * Today's UK Const PMI beat dismissed like many other beats of late * UK Markit Services & Composite PMIs out Wed USD/CAD * USD/CAD 1.3114/74, Noram 1.3146/3215, close 1.3198 (NY +37 pips) * Hawkish Fed comments hit stocks and undermined risk appetite * S&P -0.6% (-0.65% NY) Oil -0.5/-0.25% (WTI/Brent) in choppy trade * DXY +0.44% (-0.11% NY); UST/CA 2Y sprd +0.3bp, 26.65; Gold -USD40 oz (-3.0%) * CAD/JPY +0.56%, 77.90, AUD/CAD -0.12%, 1.0050; EUR/CAD 1.4775 +0.46% * Wed-Cda trade, exports in focus, US trade, ADP, factory ords Svc ISM [page:2417] AUD/USD * Europe lifts pair from 10-DMA, NY opens near 0.7670, bear pressure early * Steady slide sees 10-DMA neared again, MA breaks & slide accelerates * Slide aided by intensified USD bid & sharp drop in NZD/USD * Pair probes 0.7600/10 support before small bounce above 0.7220 * Techs favoring bears, bearish outside candle on daily chart & RSIs biased down * Oz August retail sales a data risk, if weak today's slide likely extends NZD/USD * Europe consolidates losses from Asia, NY opens near 0.7285 * Bear pressure early on broad based USD bid, pair slips below the 10-DMA * Fonterra results GDT PI -3.0% & WMP -3.8%, volumes sold drops again * Pair's slide accelerates sharply, not let up seen, 55-DMA & daily clout top cleared * Spike up in EUR/NZD helps pair fall further, 0.7200/20 support cleared & 0.7198 hit * Late day USD give back allows a small bounce, near 0.7210 late in the day * No NZ data due, OZ retail sales might impact via AUD/NZD LATAM * USD/MXN, NY very choppy 19.3900/ 19.1550 / 19.3500, close 19.3250 * Oil prices were volatile, opened weak but rebounded, MXN tracked the DXY * S&P -0.7%, risk aversion spiked & the DXY closed +0.47% (NY -0.08%) * USD/BRL -1.4% to 3.2540 by NY close; Bovespa -0.77% BR bond yields up * BcB sold 5k rev. swaps; BRL down on I.P. Fed talk * USD/CLP ends NorAm 663.50, -0.56% with copper -1.14% USD/JPY shorts may be squeezed if oil lifts US econ USD/JPY's 21% drop from June '15 to June '16 imported deflation to Japan, bolstered by falling oil prices However, WTI's pending long-term inverted H&S pattern may bode well for the US economy, stocks and Tsy yields, and poorly for the JPY, as imported energy-led inflation reduces real JGB yields now that the BOJ's put a hold on nominal ones with yield curve control. Both US presidential candidates want fiscal stimulus (more room for Fed hikes) and Japan is ramping up spending to fight deflation. Near historic highs in net spec short USD/JPY positions make a squeeze a threat if oil prices trend up from here. USD/JPY hasn't made a new low since June, allowing oversold monthly Slow Stochs to bottom. Real 2-yr spreads bottomed in January and US and Japanese fiscal stimulus prospects should allow the Fed to tighten and dampen Japan's deflation.