July 14, 2015 / 11:09 PM / 2 years ago

IFR Markets ForexWatch Asia Regional Daily Briefing

SYDNEY, July 15 (IFR) -

Tuesday Night Headlines * US Retail Sales MM Jun -0.3%, f/c 0.2%, 1%-prev * US Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM Jun -0.1%, f/c 0.5%, 0.8%-prev * US Retail Control Jun -0.1%, f/c 0.4%, 0.7%-prev * Secret IMF report: Greece needs debt relief far beyond EU plans (Reuters EXCL) * Euro leaders say knew of latest IMF debt analysis for Greece (EU official) * EU exec to recommend use of EFSM for Greek bridge financing * Greek PM Tsipras will not resign, govt reshuffle after bailout vote likely (Official) * Greek EconMin Stathakis: banks will not open until after ECB restores funding * Greek opposition party Potami says will back Tsipras in parliament * Germany's Schaeuble: will take at least four weeks to agree to bailout, * BOE's Carney: should not expect tighter monetary conditions through stronger GBP to remove need for higher rates, wage data through April may be firmer than expected in May * BOE's Miles: sees good reasons for thinking it's likely UK inflation will rise in '16; waiting too long to begin path of gradual hikes would be bad mistake Macro Themes in Play * Dollar, rates down on US Retail Sales miss; equities broadly higher as ongoing Euro relief trade lifts risk mood; EURUSD ends steady after whipsaw day * Greece lower; GREEK ETF off 15% since Monday open; parliament to vote on deal Wednesday; Tsipras denies resignation talk * Cable highest in 2 weeks on hawkish Carney; USDJPY sideways; CAD lower despite higher oil on BOC rate cut expectations tomorrow; AUD modestly higher as shorts wary of China GDP * Oil ends up after initial dip on Iran deal, still in recent range; CRB firm, highest close in more than a week * Yellen congressional testimony Wednesday; forum for laying out views; market sees Sep rate hike odds at about 1-in4 chance Overnight Currency summaries prepared by the NY/IFR BUZZ team EUR/USD * Bids into 1.0950, general USD weakness & a short mkt see pair lift in Europe * Near 1.1020 at NY open, more gains after US data print * Retail sales miss sinks USD further & UST yields drop, EUR/USD spikes 1.1090 * Offers ahead of 1.1100 limit gains and USD rebounds, gains begin to erode * Stock mkt rallies & fix flow then see dip below 1.1000 USD/JPY * USD/JPY o/n rise stalled at July's high & 61.8% of Jun-July slide (123.75-78) * Dipped to 122.94 after weak US data, rebounded to 123.45 with stocks * Yield spreads still a drag though into Yellen & key US data on Wed * BOJ seen steady, at least til Oct, as pensions dump JGBs, CPI holds near 0 * J pension buying of foreign stocks & bonds, FDI & retail flows M-T supports * Big variable is global risk flows: Pending Greek deal is untenable GBP/USD * Cable extended north to 1.5635 after soft US retail sales * Reversed early NY strength as doubts re Greek bailout implementation hit EUR * GBP/USD fell in sympathy with EUR before rising to 1-wk high 1.5639 in NY aft * Hawkish Carney statements raise hopes for early UK hike * EUR/GBP resumes downtrend on Greek fears and UK rate hike USD/CAD * O/N range 1.2734/2805, NorAm range 1.2716/94, closed 1.2750 (-40 pips in NY) * Brent crude +0.9%, WTI +1.2%, aluminum -0.36% (Aug) copper -0.2%, gold -0.15% * AUD/CAD closed +0.5%, 0.9487, CAD/JPY +0.1%, 96.82, EUR/CAD +0.1%, 1.4022 * DXY -0.2; "unch" in NY trade. Hurdles to ratifying Greek debt deal the focus * Oil prices +2.6% in NY trade, Republicans' response to Iran deal the catalyst * Soft US retail sales offset better than f/c sales/inventory data, BoC tomorrow AUD/USD * Post-NAB data gains hold in Europe's morning, near 0.7435 into NY open * Major spike higher on US retail sales miss as USD & UST yields fall * 0.7479 high made, macro offers into 0.7480/00 can't be cleared, USD rebounds * Par slips lower & holds near 0.7445 for rest of session ahead of China data * June IP & retail sales due along with Q2 GDP, most trader to focus on GDP NZD/USD * Quiet morning in Europe, NY opens near 0.6680, just off o/n low * US sales miss wakes mkt from slumber and sees pair spike above 200-HMA * High of 0.6743 made but spike gains erode as USD recovers, near 0.6705 late * Mkt turns to China data, June IP & retail sale, Q2 GDP due, GDP to impact more LATAM * Weak US ret sales weigh on USD, FF fut reduce likelihood of US liftoff in Sept * Lower US yields move USD/MXN to Jun 30 low-15.6280, before ending NY by 15.67 * USD/BRL shrugged off dismal Brazil RS moved to lows by 3.1124 w/in daily cloud * Reversed early weakness to end NY session near flat at 3.1325 * USD/CLP put in low 641.25 on weak US data, despite weak copper, ends NY 643 * Chilean rate decision late Tues, no chg expected ASIAN CURRENCY OUTLOOK USD/AXJ * USD/AXJ complex mixed thru OTC and NDF markets overnight * Postmortem of Greek deal alarming after IMF report released by Reuters * GBP sharply higher on 2015 rate hike talks by BOE MPC * Crude prices on wild ride after Iran deal/inventory data * China Q2 GDP key event risk today - Reuters poll 6.9% USD/KRW traded an 1136.8-1142.6 range in Asia on Tuesday; last at 1142.6. The Kospi closed down 0.1%. USD/SGD traded a 1.3569-1.3632 range in Asia on Tuesday; last at 1.3607. The Straits Times closed up 0.16%. USD/MYR traded a 3.8040-3.8090 range in Asia on Tuesday; last at 3.8070. The KLSE index closed up 0.3%. USD/IDR traded a 13300-13345 range in Asia on Tuesday; last at 13337. The Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) was set at 13320. The IDX Composite closed up 0.15%. USD/PHP traded a 45.175-25 range in Asia on Tuesday; last at 45.195. The PSE index closed up 0.55%. USD/THB traded a 34.005-06 range in Asia on Tuesday; last at 34.045. Thai Set closed down 0.15%. USD/TWD traded a 31.006-058 range in Asia on Tuesday; last at 31.02. The Taiex closed up 0.1%. USD/CNY was set in Asia on Tuesday at 6.1165 slightly higher than the previous 6.1133 fix. OTC USD/CNY traded a 6.2082-6.2092 range; last at 6.2089. OTC USD/CNH last at 6.2143; range 6.2140-6.2175. The 1-yr NDF was last quoted in Asia at 6.2630-6.2650. The Shanghai Composite closed down 1.1%. The property sub sector closed down 3.4%. USD/INR traded a 63.39-585 range in Asia on Tuesday; last at 63.39. The Sensex closed down 0.1%. Economic Data Releases (GMT) 00:30 AU Consumer Sentiment Jul 01:30 AU New Motor Veh Sales 02:00 CN Urban invt 02:00 CN Industrial Output 02:00 CN Retail Sales 02:00 CN GDP Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT) 03:00 JP Bank of Japan Int rate announcement/monetary policy committee statement

OVERNIGHT TRADED RANGES--------------- INTRADAY RANGES -- Close 2100GMT NDFS OPEN HIGH LOW LAST CURRENCY HIGH LOW CLOSE IDR 13430 13440 13400 13405-13425 USD/JPY 123.74 122.92 123.39 INR 63.73 63.76 63.53 63.63-65 EUR/USD 1.1090 1.0965 1.1007 KRW 1143 1145.2 1139 1144.5-45.3 EUR/JPY 136.56 135.30 135.82 MYR 3.8185 3.8170 3.8090 3.8120-40 GBP/USD 1.5639 1.5449 1.5637 PHP 45.33 45.36 45.30 45.35-37 USD/CAD 1.2805 1.2716 1.2728 TWD 31.04 31.06 31.01 31.02-03 AUD/USD 0.7479 0.7388 0.7451 CNY 1-mth 6.1240 6.1230 6.1230-50 NZD/USD 0.6743 0.6667 0.6710 CNY 6-mth No Trades 6.1760-80 USD/SGD 1.3632 1.3557 1.3614 CNY 1-yr No Trades 6.2645-65 USD/THB 34.06 34.005 34.04 Equities Close Change %Change UST(Yields) Close Previous DJIA 18054 +76 +0.42 10-year 2.40% 2.45% S&P 500 2109 +9 +0.45 2-year 0.64% 0.68% NASDAQ 5105 +33 +0.66 30-year 3.19% 3.23% FTSE 6754 +16 +0.24 Spot Gold($) 1155.60 1157.80 DAX 11517 +33 +0.28 Nymex 53.04 51.80 Nikkei 20385 +295 +1.47 Brent 58.80 57.84

Reporting by Peter Whitley

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