SYDNEY, March 10 (IFR) - Market Briefs * RBNZ cuts OCR 25bps to 2.25 pct, signals further cut if inflation shifts below 2% * U.S. Jan wholesale inventories rise 0.3%, seen hurting growth in 2016; sales declined 1.3% * Bank of Canada holds rates, sees stronger world growth in '16/17 * Wall Street gets boost from crude oil recovery, Brent crude up above $40 per barrel * Atlanta Fed holds U.S. Q1 GDP view at 2.2 percent after wholesale inventory data * U.S. bond yields rise further after weak 10-yr auction * EIA data sees crude inventories rise, gasoline stocks fall 4,5MN bbls vs f/c of -1.4MN bbls * Brazil's Barbosa: Brazil political crisis will not hamper economic reforms Macro Themes in Play Stocks sideways, commodity rally has minimal impact on major markets; positions small ahead of ECB, painful memories of December debacle EUR firm, traders worry of NIRP backfire like with BOJ and JPY; DXY ends right on 200 dma, whichever way it breaks seen as a go-with trade; USDJPY recovers with JGB yields, Cable nothing, coin toss CAD flies on BOC hold, oil, fiscal spending brightens outlook; BRL through 200 dma for first time since Sep 2014, Bovespa biggest winner on the board YTD despite steady diet of bad news; AUD within a fig of H&S bottom objective (.7625) New highs in oil despite US gulf crude stockpiles at record highs, talk of another OPEC production meeting; commodities broadly bid on prospect of weaker USD Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT) * 23:50 JP Japan Buying Foreign Bonds Mar 4 JPY 933.8b-prev * 23:50 JP Japan Buying Foreign Stocks Mar 4 JPY 382.3b-prev * 00:00 AU Consumer Inflation Expectation Mar 3.6%-prev Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT) * No Significant Events Currency Summaries EUR/USD * Bears weigh in Europe's morning, firm JPY sinks EUR/JPY, EUR/USD down near 1.0955 * Bounce sees NY open near 1.0975, lift fades as JPY bid persists & EUR/JPY hits 123.08 * EUR/USD tests 1.0940/50 zone again, slide halts as risk sentiment turns up & JPY softens * EUR/JPY rallies sharply, pierces 124.85, EUR/USD rallies to 1.1035 * Broad USD rally in NY afternoon sees pair near 1.1010 late in the day * Market now looks to China Feb CPI & ECB for next cues USD/JPY * Recent long JPY trade reversed; Blackrock tipped its move * USD/JPY bid after failing to take out the Mar 1 pullback low o/n * Oil led another version of the risk-on trade & JPY bore the brunt of it * Prices back up probing the Tenkan & 200-HMA by 113.40 * Heavy FY-end JPY buying & massive JGB yld drop Tues receded today * Deeply negative JGB yields & JGB vol a L-T driver of outbound J investment * USD/JPY gains still at risk if another round of global derisking develops * EUR/JPY reversed after a 2-tic breach of the Mar 2 low; 125 Tues hi nearby * JPY crosses bid: AUD/JPY cleared its Cloud top & Mar 7 hi at 84.97/5.01 * Weekly J investment flows tonight, but China data & ECB main foci GBP/USD * Cable met fresh headwind at 1.4241 after strong UK mfg output data * 1.4241 was Tuesday's NY session high, after relatively hawkish Weale * Resistance at upper 21-h Bolli (1.4239), then 30-DMA at 1.4276 * EUR/GBP extended south to 0.7701 after UK mfg output +0.7% vs +0.2% f/c * Pair rallied in NY aft as EUR shorts covered ahead of Thurs ECB announcement * 0.7710 = pre-data low vs 0.7756 Wednesdays NY aft high * Key Support 0.7692 (last week's low). 0.7692 = 1.30 = GBP/EUR USD/CHF * USD/CHF's O/N surge to 1.0044 barely clipped the Feb 29 high at 1.0039 * The lack of follow-through and broad USD selling in NY erased all the gains * The new trend high stopped shy of the thin Cloud's 1.0058 base * 2-yr yields spreads have slipped from Monday's peak (high since Dec) * EUR/CHF climbed to 1.1000 by 50% of Feb.'s drop & the Kijun at 1.1005 * A close above there opens the way to the 61.8% at 1.1051 & nearby highs * ECB meeting Thur is the key event risk; SNB's a week later USD/CAD * O/N range 1.3379/3447, Noram range 1.3230/3428, Cl 1.3254, NY -143 pts * Brent crude +3.0%, WTI +4.7%, Alum +0.7%, copper +0.5%, gold -0.66% * AUD/CAD -0.41%, 0.9933, CAD/JPY +1.82%, 85.53, EUR/CAD -1.15%, 1.4592 * DXY -0.04% (-0.16% in NY) US stocks +0.15/0.55% (S&P +0.11% in NY) * BoC - exports improved; rosy view global growth, USD plunged * UST/CA 2-Yr spread -1.3 (+37.1) Wed Cda Cap Util, New HPI Fri Jobs [page:2417] AUD/USD * Bull pressure in early Europe as AUD/JPY lifts from 83.55, AUD/USD up from 0.7425 * NY opens near 0.7490, dips to 0.7467 on sour risk, dip bought as risk turns * JPY weakens further, AUD/JPY up near 85.15, AUD/USD to new high of 0.7528 * Broad USD strength in NY afternoon sees pair near 0.7500 late in the day * Oz Mar consumer inflation expectations & China Feb CPI are data risks in Asia NZD/USD Bull pressure in Europe's morning, weak JPY lifts NZD/JPY from 75.65 toward 77.00 NZD/USD lifts from 0.6725 are to NY open near 0.6780, early dip near 0.6760 bought Risk sentiment turns up on stock & commodity lifts & JPY softens further, 0.6810 neared Slides sub- 0.6770 as USD broadly bid late, pair holds near 0.6780 into RBNZ RBNZ shocks with a cut to 2.25%, notes further easing to be required Notes dairy sector risk of more extended period & lower NZD appropriate NZD broadly hit, NZD/USD down to 0.6650, clear dovish message, NZD to stay heavy LATAM * USD/MXN moves to lower end of recent range near 17.72 as NorAm closes * Oil key driver rallies 4%, risk bid as equities, US yields rise, XAU/USD lower * Thurs ECB in focus as to degree of accommodation, -10bp cut min exp'd * USD/BRL off 1.35% biggest LatAm gainer, IPCA inflation falls * Much anticipated base effects begin to take hold, may spur int rate cuts * USD/CLP -0.8% on higher commodities, copper +0.59%, 10-DMA weighs Loonie rally big threat to Canada's export progress The USD slump post- BoC was attributed to bullish comments they made regarding the rise in Canadian non-mfg exports and BoC's forecast for higher global growth in 2016. USD/CAD was also hit by weak US wholesale sales/inventories - illogical as Canada is relying on strong US demand to boost non-energy exports, weaker US growth will dampen US demand, additional USD weakness not warranted. CAD's 9-10% rise since January lows will impact Canadian exporters. The BoC's global outlook much rosier than private economists'. Even the better than f/c Q4 GDP resulted from imports falling faster than exports. Canada needs to maintain non-mfg export growth to replace lost energy sector jobs. Oil is important as noted earlier but rebalancing the economy more so. Alberta's jobless rate is at a 20 year high, CAD much below 1.30 a disaster given NAFTA partner MXN's larger depreciation since 2014.