BEIJING, April 18 The International Monetary
Fund on Tuesday raised forecasts for China's economic growth in
2017 and 2018, citing expectations of continued policy support,
but warned of potential disruptions in the medium turn unless
the country reduces its reliance on rapid credit growth.
The IMF upgraded its estimate for China's 2017 growth to 6.6
percent from 6.5 percent, which it made in January.
It also raised its forecast for growth next year to 6.2
percent from the previous 6.0 percent.
While higher, the IMF estimates would equate to a
significant slowdown from current growth rates.
China's economy grew by a faster-than-expected 6.9 percent
in the first quarter of this year, fueled by robust bank
lending, higher government infrastructure spending and a housing
market that is showing signs of overheating.
The IMF said China has made some progress in reducing its
industrial production overcapacity, but noted that the economy
continues to rely on government stimulus and rapid credit
expansion to maintain growth.
The report cited China's "policy preference for maintaining
relatively high GDP growth", but warned of the consequences of
unbalanced growth in the medium term.
"The resulting persistent resource misallocation, however,
raises the risk of a disruptive adjustment in China in
the medium term," which could also be exacerbated by continued
capital outflows, the report said.
Despite vows from policymakers to rein in financial risks
and pursue more sustainable growth, China continues to depend
heavily on debt and public spending to drive growth.
Total new credit to the economy, which includes bank lending
as well as other forms of credit, increased by a record 6.93
trillion yuan in the first quarter, data showed last week.
Coming after China's record 17.8 trillion yuan ($2.58
trillion) in credit last year, analysts are sceptical that
policymakers will be able to wean the economy off years of
debt-fueled growth and still hit official growth targets.
The Bank for International Settlements in September warned
excessive credit growth in China is signalling an increasing
risk of a banking crisis in the next three years.
China's debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 277 percent at the end of
2016 from 254 percent the previous year, with an increasing
share of new credit being used to pay debt servicing costs,
according to an estimate from UBS.
The IMF raised its forecast for global growth for 2017 to
3.5 percent from 3.4 percent but left its estimate for 2018
growth unchanged at 3.6 percent.
(Reporting by Elias Glenn; Editing by Kim Coghill)