MUMBAI Indian gold futures are likely to fall past their lowest level in more than 10 weeks over the next fortnight, weighed by a stronger dollar, considered as an alternative to the yellow metal, and falling crude oil prices, but recovering physical demand could help limit the downside.
"Strengthening of the dollar and strong U.S. economic data will likely remove the bullion's safe-haven appeal," said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, director of Commtrendz Research, in Mumbai.
The most-active gold for December delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was 1.23 percent higher at 30,873 rupees per 10 gram, not far from the last week's lowest level in 10 weeks of 30,366 rupees, a level last seen on August 14.
Selling is advised in gold on rallies to 31,000 rupees, for a target of 30,000 rupees, with a stop loss of 31,250 rupees, said Thiagarajan.
The euro fell to a near two-month low against a buoyant dollar on Monday on uncertainty over a Greek vote on reforms and before this week's U.S. presidential election.
The U.S. elections will be closely watched by financial markets, with incumbent Barack Obama seen as more supportive of continued stimulus measures, while Republican challenger Mitt Romney is expected not to favour additional easing.
Gold buying will peak in India, the world's biggest buyer of the precious metal, during Dhanteras and Diwali next week. Weddings will also take place during this period.
Silver could also fall past its lowest level in two months.
Silver for December delivery on the MCX was 1.17 percent higher at 58,272 rupees per kg.
Selling is advised in silver at 59,300 rupees, for a target of 57,000 rupees, said Thiagarajan. (Reporting by Siddesh Mayenkar; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)