Peaks, black swans and bonanzas: Market tips, bold calls and eyecatchers for 2017
LONDON Politics, economics and finance have all been turned on their head in 2016, and investors are already looking ahead to 2017 with anticipation and trepidation.
NEW DELHI India is considering calling on its millions of non-resident citizens to help reverse a record slide in the rupee and does not favour the idea of a global sovereign bond at this time, senior government officials told Reuters on Monday.
However, the government strongly denied having ruled out a sovereign bond issue and said in a statement that "all options are on the table".
The officials, who spoke earlier on condition of anonymity, said India was running out of options and time to revive the currency and fund a record current account deficit but equally policymakers were wary of sending any distress signals to international markets.
Issuing a global bond might send such a signal, so instead policymakers will focus on attracting funds from Indians living abroad, such as by raising deposit rates in India or issuing bonds specifically designed for them - repeating measures carried out in 1998 and 2000 to steady a weak rupee.
The officials declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of discussing government deliberations. They were not immediately reachable for further comment.
The officials said other options included an increase in RBI policy rates and allowing select firms to raise capital overseas.
"All have agreed that it is not a time for India to issue sovereign bonds at this stage," one official said, adding that the central bank agreed with that position too.
"We do not have much options. Whatever has to be done, will be done in the next few weeks," the official said. "We have a window of only few weeks," he said.
"The government could ask banks to raise interest rates to attract an additional $15-20 billion," he said.
The news prompted the 10-year benchmark 7.16 percent, 2023 bond yield to jump 8 basis points to 8.08 percent, while the rupee ticked lower on the news that a global bond was not being considered right now.
The government denied it was no longer contemplating a sovereign bond issue.
"These reports are without any basis," a government statement said. "As the Ministry of Finance has said repeatedly, all options are on the table and are examined from time to time. Steps are taken by the government at the appropriate time."
In addition, Chief Economic Adviser Raghuram Rajan told reporters earlier that the government "has not dropped any options" for stabilising the rupee.
India has the second-largest diaspora in the world, with a community estimated at more than 25 million, the Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs says.
Central bank figures show non-resident Indians (NRIs) held $58 billion in dollar deposits in India as of September 2012, plus local currency deposits worth 3 trillion rupees.
Since the rupee's rapid decline, inflows of money from NRIs have risen, the government official said. The currency traded at around 59.70 per dollar on Monday to be about a percent above its record low of 61.21 hit on July 8.
The rupee has steadied somewhat since the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) took unprecedented steps last week to try to create demand for the currency by aggressively draining cash from money markets and sharply raising short-term interest rates.
Some of the rupee's fall - 12 percent since May - reflects a broader selloff in emerging markets on signs the United States is preparing to wind down its economic stimulus.
But there are also specific fears about India's slowing economy, a lack of substantive reforms and its large current account deficit. That is reflected in foreign fund outflows from India's debt and equity markets since late May of $11.5 billion.
"The government must be weighing the pros and cons of various options available to them, which would be most effective in attracting capital," said Upasna Bhardwaj, economist with ING Vysya Bank in Mumbai. Options include the issuing of NRI bonds and encouraging state-run firms to raise foreign debt, she said.
"If attractive yields are provided, any of these options could be successful."
India has taken some steps this year to try to attract foreign investment, such as easing registration rules and increasing ownership limits for long-term investors such as sovereign wealth funds.
Measures from the Indian stock market regulator aimed at curtailing speculative positions against the currency gave it some reprieve, but market participants are bracing for a rise in policy rates or other aggressive measures to attract foreign money.
"We understand that we need funds to finance our current account deficit but we do not want to send any signal of panic outside India," a second government official said.
"The rating agencies are already watching us closely, we have to manage the situation in a subtle manner," he said.
The government's first line of defence therefore would be to woo non-resident Indians, sources said.
NRIs lapped up bonds and deposits issued by India in 1998 and 2000, helping bridge massive gaps in India's funding needs. Now, with a current account deficit at a record 4.8 percent of economic output, the country needs all the funding it can get.
The government sources said India could consider raising the repo rate, the central bank's main policy rate, if the rupee falls towards 61-62 to the dollar, citing recent meetings between the government and the RBI.
The government is also considering allowing select companies such as state-run India Infrastructure Finance Co Ltd or IDFC Ltd (IDFC.NS) to raise up to $4 billion in debt abroad, they said.
The first official said state-owned banks are likely to be asked to raise funds from overseas markets to meet their capital needs.
"Even if 5-7 banks raise $1 billion each, it will help us," he said. (Additional reporting by Suvashree DeyChoudhury, Rafael Nam, Swati Bhat and Subhadip Sircar in Mumbai; Editing by Neil Fullick)
BENGALURU/MUMBAI Gold premiums in China held near three-year highs this week amid limited supply of the precious metal with traders saying Beijing was restricting imports, while prices in India swung to a discount as a severe cash crunch dampened appetite.
The European Central Bank is expected to announce a six-month extension to its quantitative easing programme next week, according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters, who also expect the bank to keep the size of its monthly asset purchases unchanged.