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Indonesia Nov palm oil output falls 7 pct from Oct -Reuters survey
December 17, 2015 / 6:13 AM / 2 years ago

Indonesia Nov palm oil output falls 7 pct from Oct -Reuters survey

* Indonesia's Nov CPO output seen at 2.8 mln T
    * Indonesia CPO exports seen at 2.09 mln T for Nov

    By Michael Taylor and Bernadette Christina Munthe
    JAKARTA, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO)
output slipped 7 percent in November from the previous month, a
Reuters survey showed, as the main harvest season ended and
monsoon weather arrived in key growing areas.
    CPO output in November was 2.8 million tonnes, down from
3.01 million tonnes in October, according to the median estimate
in a survey of four Indonesian industry officials and plantation
companies.
    "November production dropped because the main harvest season
almost ended," said Fadhil Hasan, executive director at the
Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI). 
    "Exports are lower because of decreasing demand from India
and the U.S., while domestic consumption is increasing because
of the biodiesel mandate."
    Indonesia's peak palm oil output usually runs over August to
September. Production in the world's top producer is typically
expected to ease in the following months as the country heads
into the beginning of its wet season in November.
    Indonesia has been pushing for greater local consumption of
biodiesel to cut its fossil fuel import bill and create more
demand for palm oil. It has increased biodiesel subsidies and
will raise the minimum bio content in diesel fuel to 20 percent
in 2016 from 15 percent now.  
    Falling output and rising domestic consumption may support
benchmark palm prices, which have climbed more than 5
percent this year and are trading on Thursday at 2,379 ringgit
($550) per tonne. 
    The Reuters survey pegged CPO exports for November at 2.093
million tonnes, the lowest level since August and down 5 percent
from October.
    According to the survey, Indonesian palm stocks were at
2.950 million tonnes in November, down from 3.025 million in
October and a level not seen since May.
    Indonesia's domestic consumption of the tropical oil was
estimated in a range between 550,000 tonnes and 900,000 tonnes.
    Monthly data published by GAPKI showed November exports at
2.39 million tonnes. 
    The Reuters survey for November comprises contributions from
GAPKI, the Indonesian Palm Oil Board, the Indonesian Vegetable
Oil Industry Association and Sinar Mas Agro Resources &
Technology, one of the largest listed palm oil
companies.
    
    Below is a table of median Reuters CPO survey results and
GAPKI palm and palm kernel oils export data for 2014/15
(forecasts in million tonnes).
                
 Month      Output   Exports   Inventories   GAPKI export data
 
 November   2.800    2.093       2.950          2.39
 October    3.010    2.213       3.025          2.61
 September  3.100    2.235       3.050          2.34 
 August     3.198    1.885       3.392          2.10       
 July       2.856    1.920       3.200          2.09
 June       2.800    2.400       3.046          2.27
 May        2.774    2.150       2.540          2.22
 April      2.662    2.046       2.602          2.25   
 March      2.397    1.800       2.667          2.03
 February   2.049    1.750       2.425          1.79
 January    2.056    1.658       2.413          1.81
 ----------------------------------------------------
 December   2.165    1.837       2.325          1.97
 November   2.306    2.100       2.225          2.26
 October    2.385    1.820       2.378          2.47
 September  2.675    1.750       2.500          1.70
 August     2.750    1.720       2.575          1.72
 ($1 = 4.3270 ringgit)

 (Reporting by Michael Taylor and Bernadette Christina Munthe;
Editing by Tom Hogue)

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