* Cbank gov sees 21 trln rupiah of tax revenue from amnesty
* Tax office is keeping 2016 revenue target at 165 trln
* Fund manager - Window for joining amnesty is 'too short'
* Tax office not planning additional incentives - spokesman
(Adds quotes, background)
By Gayatri Suroyo and Hidayat Setiaji
JAKARTA, Sept 8 Indonesia's flagship tax amnesty
programme will likely yield only a fraction of the revenue
targeted, the central bank governor said, in a blow to the
government's plan to meet its budget deficit target.
Indonesia launched the amnesty programme in July, offering
low penalty rates for taxpayers declaring untaxed assets at home
and abroad by March 2017.
But the programme has started more slowly than expected,
raising doubts over whether it will generate enough revenue to
meet the deficit target.
And the shortfalls could make it harder for President Joko
Widodo's government to fund ambitious infrastructure projects.
The government had banked on the amnesty to bring in 165
trillion rupiah ($12.6 billion) in 2016, to help keep the budget
deficit from breaching a legal limit of 3 percent of GDP.
Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati estimated last month
that the 2016 deficit would be 2.5 percent.
But Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo told a
parliamentary hearing late Wednesday that the central bank's
baseline model for the programme points to merely 18 trillion
rupiah of revenue in 2016 - only 11 percent of target - and 3
trillion rupiah more in 2017.
Assets repatriated home under the amnesty would probably
amount to just $13.8 billion, he said.
In April, before parliament approved the amnesty, the
governor predicted it would attract home about $42 billion.
On Wednesday night, Martowardojo told parliament "we're
being conservative about our outlook based on the latest
development of the tax amnesty."
He noted that 1-1/2 months after its launch, the amnesty
revenue was less than 4 percent of the government's target.
Indrawati, who attended the parliamentary hearing, declined
comment on the central bank's revised forecast.
The ministry's tax office, which runs the amnesty programme,
said its revenue target was unchanged.
"We hope it can be achieved. We will never be satisfied,"
Ken Dwijugiasteadi, director general for taxes, told Reuters.
Hestu Yoga Saksama, a tax office spokesman, said it has no
plans yet to extend the deadline or change amnesty tariffs.
MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN
The tax office hopes that more Indonesians will follow the
footsteps of billionaire James Riady, who last week announced
participation in the amnesty.
Riady, chief executive of Indonesian property-to-media
conglomerate Lippo Group, did not disclose the value he
Anticipation of large inflows has aided some Indonesian
shares this year, and property firms have tailored their
marketing to target amnesty participants.
Several wealth managers and analysts said potential
participants are still seeking to understand the amnesty's terms
and options as well as its attractiveness for them.
Taxpayers with assets abroad have an option to leave them
there, and pay a higher penalty than if the money comes home.
"People are seeing this as an opportunity (to declare
wealth), but they have a lot of questions and the window for
them, time-wise, is too short," said Winston Sual, president
director of Jakarta-based Panin Asset Management, which manages
11 trillion rupiah in funds.
"They need time to consider everything especially if they
have large wealth in various assets," Sual said.
He said participation rates could rise later.
"The market has realised since the beginning that the
government's target is high," Sual said. "We are seeing in the
past few weeks a pretty good progress compared to the earlier
($1 = 13,080.00 rupiah)
(Additional reporting by Fransiska Nangoy and Cindy Silviana in
Jakarta and Saeed Azhar in Singapore; Writing by Randy Fabi and
Eveline Danubrata; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore and Richard