"Call of Duty" game shoots to make history

By Gabriel Madway and Franklin Paul

SAN FRANCISCO/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Forget the buzz over the next "Twilight" film or James Cameron's "Avatar." The biggest entertainment hit of the holiday season may come on Tuesday, when "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2" hits stores.

The video game published by Activision Blizzard Inc is the most highly anticipated of the year, winning accolades from gaming blogs and Wall Street analysts alike. But it also arrives at a time when the weak economy is punishing sales across the video game industry.

Activision has plenty riding on the launch, and much to lose if the game falls short of expectations. Shares of the company have risen around 30 percent this year, outperforming chief rival Electronic Arts Inc's 18 percent gain.

"This is the one game that could buck the economic trend for the holiday season," said MKM Partners analyst Eric Handler. He estimates the title will account for 16 cents of Activision's earnings per share in the December quarter, and more than one-third of the publisher's bottom line.

Analysts say "Call of Duty's" audience of hard-core gamers, generally young men, are likely to hit stores in droves to pick up the $60 game. Activision is partnering with 12 retailers including GameStop Corp and Best Buy Co for more than 10,000 midnight store openings in North America.

Sales estimates range from 11 million-13 million units by end-2009, which would put the game in rarefied company.

Activision said preorders set a record. The shooter game is likely to be "one of the largest entertainment launches of any media of all time," CEO Robert Kotick said this week.

MKM's Handler expects "Call of Duty" to sell close to 5 million units on the first day, and 7 million-8 million in the first week. That would beat last year's blockbuster "Grand Theft Auto IV" from Take-Two Interactive Software Inc, which sold 3.6 million units on the first day, and 6 million in its first week or more than $500 million in sales.