TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan’s exports are expected to have risen for a seventh straight month in June, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, indicating that a recent revival in global demand will continue to support a moderate recovery in the world’s third-biggest economy.
The poll of 20 economist also found the Bank of Japan will keep its monetary policy settings unchanged when it meets on Wednesday and Thursday next week, reflecting the gradual uptick in growth.
Enjoying a tail wind from a weaker yen, exports are predicted to rise 9.5 percent year-on-year last month, the same poll showed, after a 14.9 percent jump in May - the fastest growth rate in more than two years, .
Imports are forecast for a 14.6 percent rise from a year ago, up for a sixth straight month, boosted by higher oil prices and solid domestic demand. The poll tipped a resulting surplus at 484.7 billion yen ($4.27 billion), versus a trade deficit of 203.4 billion yen in May.
“A weak yen boosted exports’ value. They kept their solid trend but the momentum has slightly slowed compared with late last fiscal year,” said Taro Saito, director of economic research at NLI Research Institute.
Saito said Japanese exports will benefit from rising demand in key foreign markets.
The finance ministry will announce the trade data at 8:50 a.m. Tokyo time on Thursday (2350 GMT Wednesday.)
The same poll found the BOJ will keep its short-term policy interest rate at minus 0.1 percent and the 10-year government bond yield target around zero percent at the July 19-20 review.
Japan and much of the export-reliant Asian economies have benefited from an upturn in global demand since late 2017 giving policy makers hope that growth will continue to pick up over the next few quarters.
Sources have told Reuters the central bank is set to raise its economic growth forecasts but cut its rosy inflation outlook next week, reinforcing expectations it will lag well behind major global central banks in dialling back its massive stimulus programme.
Japan’s economy grew at an annualised 1.0 percent in thefirst quarter on solid exports and private consumption. But core consumer prices in May rose just 0.4 percent from ayear earlier, some distance from the BOJ’s 2 percent target.
($1 = 113.4500 yen)
Reporting by Kaori Kaneko; Editing by Shri Navaratnam