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POLL-Bearish bets on won largest since 2008 crisis, Asia FX sentiment weaker
November 20, 2014 / 7:38 AM / 3 years ago

POLL-Bearish bets on won largest since 2008 crisis, Asia FX sentiment weaker

* Won bearish bets largest since Oct 2008
    * Taiwan dlr, Sing dlr bearish bets highest since Apr 2009
    * Yuan long positions up on Shanghai-Hong Kong stock link

    By Jongwoo Cheon
    SINGAPORE, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Investors built up the largest
short positions in the South Korean won since the 2008 global
financial crisis in the last two weeks as sentiment towards most
emerging Asian currencies soured as the yen hit multi-year lows,
a Reuters poll showed.
    Long positions on China's yuan, however, rose
slightly on expectations of inflows thanks to a new link between
the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock exchanges. 
    Bearish bets on the won rose to the largest since
October 2008, according to the survey of 15 currency analysts
and traders conducted between Tuesday and Thursday. The won fell
to a near 15-month low against the dollar on Thursday.
    That came as the yen slid to a seven-year low against the
dollar and a six-year trough versus the euro as
speculators rushed into carry trades funded by super-cheap
liquidity from the Bank of Japan.
    The won is seen as more sensitive to the yen's weakness,
given the rivalry between South Korean and Japanese exporters.
    The Taiwan dollar also saw its most bearish bets
since April 2009 on fears that the island's exporters are 
losing competitiveness due to the weakness of the yen and won.
    Short positions in the Singapore dollar also rose
to the highest since the same period. It fell on Thursday to
1.3012 per U.S. dollar, its weakest since December 2011, and
traders said the central bank was spotted intervening to stem
the depreciation. 
    Bearish bets on the Malaysian ringgit rose to their
largest since August 2013 on concerns over the slowing economy
and the impact of lower oil prices. 
    With the regional mood bearish, the Indonesian rupiah
 failed to retain bullish bets although the central bank
raised interest rates and the government increased fuel prices
earlier this week. The previous survey showed sentiment on the
rupiah turned bullish for the first time since mid-August. 
    Long bets on the Indian rupee were also trimmed.
    The Reuters survey is focused on what analysts believe are
the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market
currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore
dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee,
Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht
.
    The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a
scale of minus 3 to plus 3.
    A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long
U.S. dollars. The figures included positions held through
non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).
    The survey findings are provided below (positions
in U.S. dollar versus each currency):

 DATE     CNY   KRW   SGD   IDR   TWD   INR   MYR   PHP   THB
 20-Nov  -0.88  1.37  1.12  0.07  0.88 -0.25  1.16  0.50  0.56
 6-Nov   -0.87  1.02  0.74 -0.02  0.41 -0.62  1.01  0.28  0.54
 23-Oct  -0.90 -0.31 -0.08  0.19 -0.08 -0.51  0.05 -0.08 -0.16
 9-Oct   -0.75  0.96  0.66  1.15  0.59 -0.03  0.73  0.47  0.57
 25-Sept -0.94  0.27  0.57  0.86  0.65  0.04  0.65  0.58  0.34
 11-Sept -1.15  0.19  0.93  0.42 -0.07 -0.07  0.40  0.03  0.32
 28-Aug  -1.07 -0.77 -0.09  0.00 -0.14 -0.41 -0.84 -0.58 -0.21
 14-Aug  -1.10 -0.62 -0.02 -0.02 -0.21  0.25 -0.83 -0.42 -0.53
 31-July -0.80 -0.53 -0.09 -0.19 -0.29 -0.24 -0.53 -0.44 -0.52
 17-July -0.39 -0.16 -0.31 -0.04  0.05 -0.35 -0.92 -0.34 -0.08
    

 (Additional reporting by Sumanta Dey in BANGALORE; Editing by
Kim Coghill)

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