November 8, 2012 / 12:31 AM / in 5 years

GRAINS-Wheat falls for first time in four sessions, near one-month high

By Colin Packham
    SYDNEY, Nov 8 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat fell on Thursday,
snapping a three-day rally after the grain hit a one-month high
in the previous session on concerns over production shortfalls
in key exporting markets Argentina and Australia.
         
    FUNDAMENTALS  
    * Chicago Board Of Trade December wheat fell 0.48
percent to $8.89-3/4 a bushel, having jumping 1.94 percent on
Wednesday.     
    * January soybeans fell 0.1 percent to $15.05-1/2 a
bushel, having slid 0.56 percent on Wednesday.
    * December corn fell 0.24 percent to $7.42-1/2 a
bushel, having gained 0.75 percent in the previous session.
    * Wheat has been supported in recent sessions by production
shortfalls in key markets Argentina and Australia.
    * Traders await upcoming U.S. Agriculture Department report,
which is expected to show further cuts to global wheat supplies
for the 2012/13 crop year.
    * Analysts expect the government's new global stocks view to
fall to 170.969 million tonnes from 173, according to the
average of estimates in a Reuters survey.
    * USDA cut its estimate of world wheat stocks, which were
198.17 million tonnes at the end of the 2011/12 crop year, by
3.71 million tonnes in its October report.
    * Soybeans under pressure from sharp declines in crude oil
market, coupled with pressure from expected USDA surge in U.S.
production estimates.     
    
    MARKET NEWS  
    * The safe-haven yen hovered near a one-month high versus
the euro on Thursday, having rallied broadly amid a rout in risk
appetite as markets fretted about the U.S. fiscal issues
following the presidential election.  
    * Brent crude fell nearly 4 percent on Wednesday as problems
facing the economies of the United States and Europe darkened
investor sentiment.  
    * The Dow industrials lost more than 300 points in a
sell-off on Wednesday that drove all major U.S. stock indexes
down over 2 percent in the wake of the presidential election as
investors' focus shifted to the looming "fiscal cliff" debate
and Europe's economic troubles.  
    
    DATA/EVENTS (GMT) 
0700 Germany   Trade data Sep         
0745 France    Trade data Sep         
1200 Britain   BOE rate decision      
1245 Euro zone ECB rate decision      
1330 Euro zone ECB's Draghi holds news conference 
1330 U.S.      Weekly jobless claims  

    
  Grains prices at  0004 GMT
  Contract        Last    Change  Pct chg  Two-day chg MA 30   RSI 
  CBOT wheat     889.75    -4.25  -0.48%    +1.45%     869.85   68
  CBOT corn      742.50    -1.75  -0.24%    +0.20%     748.76   45
  CBOT soy      1505.50    -1.50  -0.10%    -0.66%    1538.48   36
  CBOT rice      $15.25    $0.03  +0.16%    -0.49%     $15.33   52
  WTI crude      $84.68    $0.24  +0.28%    -4.54%     $88.93   40
  Currencies                                                
  Euro/dlr       $1.275  -$0.002  -0.13%    -0.47%
  USD/AUD         1.040   -0.001  -0.06%    -0.29%
  Most active contracts
  Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
  RSI 14, exponential
 
 (Editing by Richard Pullin)

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