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GRAINS-Soybeans edge toward record high on tight supply
August 21, 2012 / 1:21 AM / 5 years ago

GRAINS-Soybeans edge toward record high on tight supply

By Colin Packham
    SYDNEY, Aug 21 (Reuters) - U.S soybeans rose on Tuesday,
rising for a third consecutive session, as the oilseed edged
towards a record high for the new crop contract on continuing
worries about crop damage from the U.S. drought.
        
    FUNDAMENTALS
    * Chicago Board of Trade November soybeans rose 0.16
percent to $16.86-1/4 a bushel, just below the record top for
the contract of $16.91-1/2 a bushel set on July 21. New-crop
soybeans closed up 2.3 percent on Monday.
    * New-crop corn fell 0.12 percent to $8.22-3/4 a
bushel after firming 2 percent to its highest since July 20 in
the previous session.
    * December wheat fell slightly to $9.02-1/4 a bushel,
having closed up 0.9 percent on Monday.
    * The U.S. Department of Agriculture said soybeans were
rated 31 percent good to excellent, up 1 percent from a week
earlier due to spotty rainfall in some areas east of the
Mississippi River. The ratings, which have improved for two
weeks in a row after six weeks of declines, matched expectations
in a Reuters survey of 13 analysts. 
    * Soybeans rated poor to very poor improved to 37 percent
from 38 percent a week ago. 
    * USDA said that the corn crop was rated 23 percent good to
excellent, unchanged from a week ago and in line with market
expectations for the drought-stricken crop. Crop conditions have
stabilized during the past two weeks after free falling
throughout the summer due to the drought but the crop still had
the worst ratings since 1988. 
    * USDA said that 51 percent of the corn was rated poor to
very poor, unchanged from a week earlier. 
    * USDA crop progress report said 4 percent of the corn crop
had been harvested by Sunday to make for the fastest harvest on
record. 
    * Farmers in Missouri -- the No 10 corn state which produced
350 million bushels last year and bore the brunt of the drought
had harvested 18 percent of their crop, compared with 2 percent
a year ago. In No 8 state Kansas which produced 449 million last
year, the harvest was 17 percent complete.
    * Scouts on the Pro Farmer crop tour pegged corn yield at
97.8 bushels per acre through the first five stops of one route
in Pickaway, Fayette, Madison, Clark and Champaign counties in
Ohio. 
    * After surveying five corn fields in southwest South
Dakota, the average corn yield was pegged at 50 bushels per
acre, compared with 127.8 bushels a year ago and the three-year
average of 140.9 bushels. 
    * The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Monday said it
has begun weighing requests to suspend the U.S. ethanol mandate,
which requires refiners to blend ethanol into gasoline, and is
seeking public feedback. 
    * Russia's two main grain market analyst groups cut their
2012 grain and wheat harvest forecasts on Monday after the start
of harvesting campaigns in the Urals and Siberia showed weak
crop prospects. SovEcon agricultural analysts
said they have narrowed their grain forecast to 71-72.5 million
tonnes from previous 70-74 million tonnes. SovEcon has also cut
wheat harvest forecast to 39-41 million tonnes from earlier
40.5-42.5 million tonnes. The Institute for Agricultural Market
Studies (IKAR) has cut 2012 grain crop forecast to 73 million
tonnes from previously expected 75.4 million tonnes and said it
sees a possibility of further downgrade. It has not yet
estimated wheat harvest, it said.
        
    MARKET NEWS  
    * The euro rose modestly against the dollar on Monday in
subdued summer trade as uncertainty about the scope of possible
European Central Bank action to contain the region's debt crisis
had investors refraining from making large bets.  
    * Oil prices slipped on Monday in choppy trading as
investors worried about the European Central Bank's ability to
address the euro zone debt crisis, while tight North Sea
supplies and Middle East turmoil limited losses.  
    * U.S. stocks were flat on Monday on signs of fatigue after
a six-week run of gains as the European Central Bank quelled
speculation about the form of market intervention that may be
taken to stem the region's debt crisis.  
    
    DATA/EVENTS (GMT) 
1145 U.S. ICSC weekly chain store sales 
1255 U.S. Redbook weekly retail sales 
2030 U.S. API weekly crude stocks       
    
  Grains prices at  0047 GMT
  Contract        Last    Change  Pct chg  Two-day chg MA 30   RSI 
  CBOT wheat     902.25    -0.50  -0.06%    -1.18%     874.48   55
  CBOT corn      822.75    -1.00  -0.12%    -0.12%     769.33   62
  CBOT soy      1686.25     2.75  +0.16%    +2.46%    1611.97   62
  CBOT rice      $15.59   -$0.01  -0.03%    -2.07%     $15.49   54
  WTI crude      $95.92   -$0.05  -0.05%    -0.09%     $91.02   78
  Currencies                                                
  Euro/dlr       $1.235   $0.001  +0.07%    +0.15%
  USD/AUD         1.046    0.001  +0.12%    +0.37%
  Most active contracts
  Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
  RSI 14, exponential
 
 (Editing by Ed Davies)

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