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NYMEX-Crude rebounds on economic data, Goldman view

Thu Jun 4, 2009 10:02pm IST
 
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 * Goldman Sachs raises end-2009 oil price forecast
 * U.S. jobless claims fall, productivity rises
 NEW YORK, June 4 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures were up
more than 3 percent Thursday, rallying on news that the number
of U.S. workers filing new jobless benefits fell for the third
straight week, which reinforced hopes that the recession was
easing.
 Gains were also built on a higher end-of-2009 price
forecast from Goldman Sachs (GS.N: Quote, Profile, Research).
 Crude futures bounced back after slumping more than 3
percent on Wednesday on data from the U.S. Energy Information
Administration showing a surprise 2.9-million-barrel increase
in domestic crude supplies last week. [EIA/S]
 "Yesterday's sell-off opened up an opportunity for buying
today and there also has been some short-covering," said Peter
Beutel, president of trading consultants Cameron Hanover in New
Canaan, Connecticut.
 "As has been the case lately, constructive economic data
has been used as an indicator that the economy will improve and
that oil demand will follow. But fundamentals at this point do
not justify the current prices for crude futures," he added.
 Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits
fell for a third straight week last week and the number of
people staying on benefit rolls after collecting an initial
week of aid fell for the first time in January, the Labor
Department said. [ID:nN04201550]
 In another report, the department said nonfarm productivity
was much stronger than initially estimated in the first
quarter.
 PRICES
 * On the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12 p.m. EDT (1600
GMT), July crude CLN9 was up $2.36, or 3.57 percent, at
$68.48 a barrel, trading from $65.92 to $68.72.
 * Tuesday's $69.05 intraday peak was the highest
front-month price since $70.46 was reached on Nov. 5.
 * In London, July Brent crude LCON9 rose $2.56, or 3.9
percent, to $68.44 barrel, trading from $65.84 to $68.65.
 * NYMEX July RBOB RBN9 rose 3.34 cents, or 1.76 percent,
to $1.9350 a gallon, trading from $1.8940 to $1.9535.
 * NYMEX July heating oil HON9 was up 4.75 cents, or 2.73
percent, at $1.7859 a gallon, trading from $1.7350 to $1.7955.
 * The July/July RBOB crack spread <0#RB-CL=R> was at
$12.79. It ended at $13.75 on Wednesday. The July/July heating
oil crack spread <0#CL-HO=R> was at $6.53. It ended at $6.89 on
Wednesday.
 * The spread between the current front month and the
five-year forward crude contract CLc61 was at $13.71, based
on the July 2014 contract settlement on Wednesday at $82.19.
The spread ended at $16.07 on Wednesday.
 TECHNICALS
 NYMEX crude 10-day/20-day moving average: $65.06/$61.85
 Technical support/resistance:
 NYMEX crude: $65.00/$70.00
 NYMEX heating oil: $1.7180/$1.8410
 NYMEX RBOB: $1.8850/$1.95
 For a report on technicals click [ID:nL4385284]
 MARKET NEWS
 * U.S. stocks rose as financial shares gained and
encouraging data on jobless claims and business productivity
offset disappointing May retail sales. [.N]
 * The euro was up slightly against the dollar in choppy
trading, following the European Central Bank's decision to keep
interest rates unchanged. [USD/]
 * The EIA said domestic natural gas storage rose last week
by 124 billion cubic feet, well above a Reuters poll forecast
for a 114 bcf build, sending NYMEX front-month natural gas
futures tumbling 5 percent. [ID:nN04152257]
 * Goldman Sachs (GS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) raised its end-of-2009 oil price
forecast to $85 a barrel from $65 and introduced a new
end-of-2010 forecast of $95. [ID:nL4422610]
 * The volume of refined fuel stored on ships floating at
sea has jumped nearly 71 percent since early April, industry
sources said. [ID:nLV86912]
 (Reporting by Gene Ramos and Robert Gibbons; editing by Jim
Marshall)


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