LNG flood to U.S. unlikely this summer-analysts

NEW YORK, May 7 (Reuters) - Delays in new liquefaction capacity and robust Chinese and Indian demand could help stem a flood of liquefied natural gas to U.S. shores in 2009, analysts Bernstein said in a research note published on Thursday.

"Significant delays and operational issues with new liquefaction trains are reducing the likelihood of an LNG supply tsunami hitting the global market in the summer of 2009," the research note read.

Bernstein said that, of the 42.5 million tonnes of new production expected in 2009, only 12.6 million tonnes will be online this summer.

Delays to the 7.8 million tonnes per year QatarGas II Train 5, Indonesia's 7.85 million tpy Tangguh and Russia's 4.8 million tpy Sakhalin II Train 2 will all help to push back overall capacity increases.

"By the middle of this year, we expect to see only Sakhalin Train 1 and Qatargas II train 4 up-and-running," Bernstein said.

In 2008, the U.S. imported only about 350 bcf as strong demand and prices in Asia sucked cargoes east from the Atlantic Basin to the Pacific.

However, Asian demand has fallen this year because of the recession, leaving more LNG in the Atlantic Basin for importers in Europe and the U.S. to absorb.

Some analysts forecast 2009 U.S. LNG imports -- already about 15 percent above the same period last year -- to near the record highs of 770 billion cubic feet (bcf) seen in 2007, compared to around 525 bcf expected by Bernstein.

"We expect U.S. LNG imports to increase this year (around 50 percent), but by much less than is widely expected, and not enough to cause over-supply of the domestic gas market, alone," Bernstein said.