PREVIEW-Petrobras Q1 profit seen falling 28 pct on year

* What: First-quarter results for Brazil's Petrobras

* When: Monday, May 11, after market closes

* Analysts see Petrobras profit down 28 pct on Q1 2008

By Denise Luna

RIO DE JANEIRO, May 11 (Reuters) - First-quarter profits
from Brazil's state-run oil company Petrobras are expected to
fall year-on-year around 28 percent, analysts said ahead of
company earnings due out late on Monday.

If the forecast is confirmed, it would return Petrobras'
(PETR4.SA: Quote, Profile, Research) (PBR.N: Quote, Profile, Research) profits to the level they were two years
ago, even though the company's production of oil, natural gas
and refined products has since risen, analysts said.

Petrobras is expected to post a quarterly net profit of
more than 5 billion reais ($2.4 billion), compared with 6.9
billion reais in the first three months of last year, according
to the average estimate of five analysts polled by Reuters.

The sharp drop in the price of oil CLc1 from around $100
a barrel in the first quarter of 2008 to around $40 a barrel in
the first three months of 2009 is seen as the main culprit for
the lackluster earnings.

The company's results will be stronger than many of its
peers, however, as it earns around half its revenue from sales
of fuels on Brazil's domestic market, where it controls
essentially all refining in the country of 190 million people.

"This will neutralize the impact of other products that
were adjusted lower and contribute positively to earnings,"
said Monica Araujo, an analyst at Ativa brokerage.

Petrobras' results were enhanced in local currency terms by
3 billion reais in the fourth quarter last year after the
currency fell sharply against the dollar.

The real (BRBY: Quote, Profile, Research) remained more or less stable against the
dollar in first quarter, unlike the fourth quarter of 2008 when
it depreciated and appears to have begun a turnaround, gaining
5 percent against the dollar last week alone.

"I don't think it is possible to say that it's been a
brilliant quarter, but it is a slightly better quarter in
comparison to those preceding it," said Itau Unibanco analyst
Paula Kovarsky.

New York oil futures prices rose CLc1 from around $32 a
barrel at the end of the fourth quarter to nearly $50 a barrel
by the end of the first quarter, increasing the value of the
oil on their books.

Below is a table showing analysts' average profit forecasts
in billions of reais:
===========================================================

Q1 Q1 Q4 PCT CHANGE

2009 2008 2008 09/08
-----------------------------------------------------------
Revenue 43.0 46.8 63.3 -8.1
EBITDA 11.9 13.8 9.6 -13.7
Net profit 5.0 6.9 7.3 -27.5
===========================================================
($1=2.07 reais)
(Writing by Reese Ewing; Editing by Brian Moss)