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UPDATE 3-NOAA sees average 2009 Atlantic hurricane season

Thu May 21, 2009 11:18pm IST
 
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(Adds details, quotes from government officials)

By Christopher Doering

WASHINGTON, May 21 (Reuters) - The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will be fairly average with as many as seven hurricanes expected to form, U.S. government forecasters predicted on Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast nine to 14 named storms this season, with four to seven developing into hurricanes. One to three could be major ones of Category 3 or higher with winds above 110 miles per hour (177 km per hour), the agency said in its annual forecast.

Last year was one of the most active seasons on record, with 16 tropical storms and eight hurricanes.

"We're now 14 years into this current high activity era and there is no indication it is coming to a close," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

"A hurricane can strike in any season and it only takes one to make it a very bad season," he said.

The hurricane season officially starts on June 1 and typically peaks between late August and mid-October. NOAA estimated an average Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 tropical storms with six hurricanes, including two to three major hurricanes.

NOAA makes its preseason forecasts in a range rather than a specific number given by other forecasters. It also offered probabilities: a 50 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 25 percent chance of an above-normal season and 25 percent chance of a below-normal season.  Continued...

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