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UPDATE 1-POLL-US natgas stocks seen down 139 bcf in wkly EIAs

Tue Dec 23, 2008 10:26pm IST
 
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 (Adds weather data, background, table)
 NEW YORK, Dec 23 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas storage
levels are expected to fall 139 billion cubic feet when weekly
data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is
released on Wednesday, according to a Reuters poll.
 The report will be issued a day early this week on
Wednesday at noon EST (1700 GMT) due to the Christmas holiday
on Thursday.
 In the survey of 17 industry traders and analysts,
withdrawal estimates for the week ended Dec. 19 ranged widely
from 113 bcf to 162 bcf. For the same week last year, stocks
fell an adjusted 153 bcf, while the five-year average decline
for that week is 132 bcf.
 The median withdrawal in the survey was 140 bcf.
 The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
said there were 191 heating degree days last week, 8 more than
the previous week and 3 above normal but 2 fewer than the same
week last year.
 Degree days, a measure of departure in the mean daily
temperature from 65 degrees Fahrenheit, are used to reflect
demand for energy to heat or cool homes and businesses.
 In the last report, overall storage fell 124 bcf, above the
Reuters survey estimate of 112 bcf but below last year's
adjusted decline of 128 bcf and the five-year average draw for
that week of 128 bcf.
 Eastern stocks shed 91 bcf in the last report and slipped
to about flat with last year's levels.
 Consuming Region West storage, which fell 11 bcf for the
week, rose to about 4 percent above the same year-ago week,
while inventories in the Producing Region lost 22 bcf but held
at about 6 percent below the same week in 2007.
 Last week's EIA report showed that total domestic gas
inventories of 3.167 trillion cubic feet were just 41 bcf, or 1
percent, below last year and 4 percent above the five-year
average. [ID:nPRWPI54]
 A draw Thursday at the Reuters estimate would narrow the
storage deficit to last year to about 27 bcf.
 In the previous four reports, total stocks fell 321 bcf, or
80 bcf per week, versus an adjusted 331 bcf slide for the same
one-month period last year and a 295 bcf five-year average
decline for that period.
 NOAA said it expected 187 HDDs this week, 10 below normal
but 15 more than the same year-ago week.
 Early withdrawal estimates for next week's EIA report
ranged from 100 bcf to 172 bcf, versus a 109 bcf adjusted
decline for the same week in 2007.
 In mid-November, storage peaked at 3.488 tcf, its second
highest level ever and just shy of the all-time high of 3.545
tcf in early November last year, according to EIA data.
 If drawdowns for the rest of the heating season match the
five-year average pace, inventories will end the heating season
at 1.362 tcf, 9 percent above the March 31 average of 1.248 tcf
and a relatively comfortable level to start the
April-through-October stock-building season.
 The following is a partial list of forecasters who
participated in this week's survey. If forecasters provided a
range, the midpoint was used.
 Caprock               -139
 CH Guernsey           -128
 Citi Futures          -145
 enerjay               -122
 First Enercast        -153
 FirstEnergy           -144
 Forecast Trading      -132
 Global Insight        -143
 Hencorp               -162
 MF Global             -140
 Raymond James         -140
 SMC Forecasting       -134
 Stephen Smith Energy  -142
 Strategic Energy      -139
 Summit Energy         -113
 (Reporting by Joe Silha; Editing by Walter Bagley)






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