UPDATE 1-POLL-US natgas stocks seen down 139 bcf in wkly EIAs
(Adds weather data, background, table)
NEW YORK, Dec 23 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas storage levels are expected to fall 139 billion cubic feet when weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is released on Wednesday, according to a Reuters poll.
The report will be issued a day early this week on Wednesday at noon EST (1700 GMT) due to the Christmas holiday on Thursday.
In the survey of 17 industry traders and analysts, withdrawal estimates for the week ended Dec. 19 ranged widely from 113 bcf to 162 bcf. For the same week last year, stocks fell an adjusted 153 bcf, while the five-year average decline for that week is 132 bcf.
The median withdrawal in the survey was 140 bcf.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there were 191 heating degree days last week, 8 more than the previous week and 3 above normal but 2 fewer than the same week last year.
Degree days, a measure of departure in the mean daily temperature from 65 degrees Fahrenheit, are used to reflect demand for energy to heat or cool homes and businesses.
In the last report, overall storage fell 124 bcf, above the Reuters survey estimate of 112 bcf but below last year's adjusted decline of 128 bcf and the five-year average draw for that week of 128 bcf.
Eastern stocks shed 91 bcf in the last report and slipped to about flat with last year's levels.
Consuming Region West storage, which fell 11 bcf for the week, rose to about 4 percent above the same year-ago week, while inventories in the Producing Region lost 22 bcf but held at about 6 percent below the same week in 2007.
Last week's EIA report showed that total domestic gas inventories of 3.167 trillion cubic feet were just 41 bcf, or 1 percent, below last year and 4 percent above the five-year average. [ID:nPRWPI54]
A draw Thursday at the Reuters estimate would narrow the storage deficit to last year to about 27 bcf.
In the previous four reports, total stocks fell 321 bcf, or 80 bcf per week, versus an adjusted 331 bcf slide for the same one-month period last year and a 295 bcf five-year average decline for that period.
NOAA said it expected 187 HDDs this week, 10 below normal but 15 more than the same year-ago week.
Early withdrawal estimates for next week's EIA report ranged from 100 bcf to 172 bcf, versus a 109 bcf adjusted decline for the same week in 2007.
In mid-November, storage peaked at 3.488 tcf, its second highest level ever and just shy of the all-time high of 3.545 tcf in early November last year, according to EIA data.
If drawdowns for the rest of the heating season match the five-year average pace, inventories will end the heating season at 1.362 tcf, 9 percent above the March 31 average of 1.248 tcf and a relatively comfortable level to start the April-through-October stock-building season.
The following is a partial list of forecasters who participated in this week's survey. If forecasters provided a range, the midpoint was used.
Caprock -139
CH Guernsey -128
Citi Futures -145
enerjay -122
First Enercast -153
FirstEnergy -144
Forecast Trading -132
Global Insight -143
Hencorp -162
MF Global -140
Raymond James -140
SMC Forecasting -134
Stephen Smith Energy -142
Strategic Energy -139
Summit Energy -113 (Reporting by Joe Silha; Editing by Walter Bagley)
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