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TEXT-S&P release on YPF SA

Wed Mar 26, 2008 10:28pm IST
 
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 (The following statement was released by the rating agency)
 March 26 - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it affirmed
its 'BB+' local currency corporate credit rating on YPF S.A. and removing it
from CreditWatch with negative implications where it was placed Dec. 27, 2007.
The outlook is stable.
  The local currency ratings were placed on CreditWatch Negative following
shareholder Repsol-YPF S.A.'s (REP.MC: Quote, Profile, Research) (Repsol; BBB/Stable/A-2) announcement
that it would sell a stake in the company, potentially signaling a decrease in
parent support and a less-flexible dividend policy (to repay acquisition debt
at a holding company level) in a context of strong capital expenditure needs.
  In February 2008, Repsol sold a 14.9% stake in YPF to Argentina-based
Grupo Petersen for $2.2 billion. The Petersen Group will have an option to
purchase an additional 10.1% in the next four years. The agreement also
contemplates that Repsol would make a public offer for an additional 20% of
YPF's share capital in secondary markets, including the Buenos Aires stock
exchange. As a result, Repsol might reduce its stake to about 55% in the medium
term. Thus, YPF's significance to the Repsol group (and eventual support) may
decline because of a reduced reserve base, declining production levels, and
less exposure to the Argentine market.
  However, currently Repsol has a material controlling stake in the company,
and we believe there are still meaningful economic incentives to support YPF if
needed, mainly given YPF's equity value and its cash generation capacity. We
therefore still factor in our ratings a certain degree of potential parent
support from controlling shareholder Repsol (which currently holds 84% of the
company). YPF may benefit from the Petersen Group's knowledge of Argentina's
business environment, but it will also be subject to a less-flexible dividend
policy, now set as at least 90% of the previous year's net income.
  Despite YPF's weak operating performance in its exploration and
production segment, we expect the company to be able to maintain moderate
leverage, strong cash-flow protection measures for the rating category, and an
adequate ability to carry out sizable capital expenditures and to face high
dividend requirements. We will continue closely monitoring YPF's operating
performance (in light of the persistent weak reserve replacement) and our
expectations about potential support from its parents.
  "The ratings on YPF S.A. mainly reflect the challenges of operating in
the highly uncertain and rapidly changing Argentine economic and regulatory
environment, a geographically concentrated reserve base, very weak
reserve-replacement ratios, and an aggressive dividend policy. Those factors
are partially offset by YPF's moderate debt levels, the company's vertical
integration of its operating units, its dominant market position in Argentina,
and a certain degree of potential support from Repsol," said Standard & Poor's
credit analyst Luciano Gremone.
  The stable outlook reflects our expectations that YPF's financial
performance will remain very strong in the medium-term, compensating ongoing
concerns on operating performance and reserve replacement, at the current
rating level. Rating upside is unlikely at this point and would require a
material improvement in YPF's reserve replacement, and an improvement in our
perception of the risk of doing business in Argentina. On the contrary, the
ratings and outlook could come under pressure if we perceive lower potential
support from Repsol, if YPF assumes a more aggressive financial policy (with a
total adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio above 1.5x), and/or if the company's
reserve replacement significantly deteriorates in the next two years.
  Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of
RatingsDirect, the real-time Web-based source for Standard & Poor's credit
ratings, research, and risk analysis, at www.ratingsdirect.com. All ratings
affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web
site at www.standardandpoors.com; select your preferred country or region,
then Ratings in the left navigation bar, followed by Credit Ratings Search.
 (New York Ratings Team)


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