TEXT-S&P release on YPF SA
(The following statement was released by the rating agency)
March 26 - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it affirmed its 'BB+' local currency corporate credit rating on YPF S.A. and removing it from CreditWatch with negative implications where it was placed Dec. 27, 2007. The outlook is stable.
The local currency ratings were placed on CreditWatch Negative following shareholder Repsol-YPF S.A.'s (REP.MC: Quote, Profile, Research) (Repsol; BBB/Stable/A-2) announcement that it would sell a stake in the company, potentially signaling a decrease in parent support and a less-flexible dividend policy (to repay acquisition debt at a holding company level) in a context of strong capital expenditure needs.
In February 2008, Repsol sold a 14.9% stake in YPF to Argentina-based Grupo Petersen for $2.2 billion. The Petersen Group will have an option to purchase an additional 10.1% in the next four years. The agreement also contemplates that Repsol would make a public offer for an additional 20% of YPF's share capital in secondary markets, including the Buenos Aires stock exchange. As a result, Repsol might reduce its stake to about 55% in the medium term. Thus, YPF's significance to the Repsol group (and eventual support) may decline because of a reduced reserve base, declining production levels, and less exposure to the Argentine market.
However, currently Repsol has a material controlling stake in the company, and we believe there are still meaningful economic incentives to support YPF if needed, mainly given YPF's equity value and its cash generation capacity. We therefore still factor in our ratings a certain degree of potential parent support from controlling shareholder Repsol (which currently holds 84% of the company). YPF may benefit from the Petersen Group's knowledge of Argentina's business environment, but it will also be subject to a less-flexible dividend policy, now set as at least 90% of the previous year's net income.
Despite YPF's weak operating performance in its exploration and production segment, we expect the company to be able to maintain moderate leverage, strong cash-flow protection measures for the rating category, and an adequate ability to carry out sizable capital expenditures and to face high dividend requirements. We will continue closely monitoring YPF's operating performance (in light of the persistent weak reserve replacement) and our expectations about potential support from its parents.
"The ratings on YPF S.A. mainly reflect the challenges of operating in the highly uncertain and rapidly changing Argentine economic and regulatory environment, a geographically concentrated reserve base, very weak reserve-replacement ratios, and an aggressive dividend policy. Those factors are partially offset by YPF's moderate debt levels, the company's vertical integration of its operating units, its dominant market position in Argentina, and a certain degree of potential support from Repsol," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Luciano Gremone.
The stable outlook reflects our expectations that YPF's financial performance will remain very strong in the medium-term, compensating ongoing concerns on operating performance and reserve replacement, at the current rating level. Rating upside is unlikely at this point and would require a material improvement in YPF's reserve replacement, and an improvement in our perception of the risk of doing business in Argentina. On the contrary, the ratings and outlook could come under pressure if we perceive lower potential support from Repsol, if YPF assumes a more aggressive financial policy (with a total adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio above 1.5x), and/or if the company's reserve replacement significantly deteriorates in the next two years.
Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect, the real-time Web-based source for Standard & Poor's credit ratings, research, and risk analysis, at www.ratingsdirect.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at www.standardandpoors.com; select your preferred country or region, then Ratings in the left navigation bar, followed by Credit Ratings Search. (New York Ratings Team)
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