* Supply rises by 810,000 bpd, led by Libya
* Saudi pumps more, other Gulf members keep supply flat
* OPEC output highest since November 2012 - Reuters
By Alex Lawler
LONDON, Sept 30 OPEC's oil supply jumped to its
highest in almost two years in September, a Reuters survey
found, due to further recovery in Libya and higher output from
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers in the face of sub-$100
per barrel oil prices.
The lack of any cutbacks underlines the relaxed view of
OPEC's core Gulf members to oil's slide from $115 in June to $97
on Tuesday - a level they can tolerate, but which puts budgets
in producers such as Iran and non-member Russia under pressure.
Supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries averaged 30.96 million barrels per day (bpd) in
September, up from 30.15 million bpd in August, according to the
survey based on shipping data and information from sources at
oil companies, OPEC and consultants.
"Libya has increased production massively and if you look
forward, OPEC is producing more than the (forecast) demand for
OPEC crude in 2015," said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at
Commerzbank. "This puts pressure on OPEC ahead of their next
OPEC pumps a third of the world's oil and meets next in
November. This month, the largest increase has come from Libya,
where supply is up by 280,000 bpd despite conflict. Iraq,
Nigeria, Angola and Saudi Arabia also boosted output.
This month's output is OPEC's highest since November 2012
when it pumped 31.06 million bpd, according to Reuters surveys.
Involuntary outages, such as in Libya, kept output below OPEC's
nominal 30 million bpd target in earlier months of the year.
Iraq, like Libya, has also managed to increase supplies
despite fighting in the country. Oil output rebounded due to
higher exports from Iraq's southern terminals and increased
output from fields in Kurdistan.
An advance by Islamic State fighters into northern Iraq has
not reduced southern exports, but violence has hit supply of
Kirkuk crude from the north and shut down the Baiji refinery,
keeping crude output below Iraq's potential.
Nigerian output, disrupted in earlier months of the year,
has climbed in September, and another increase has come from
Angola where CLOV, a new crude stream operated by Total
, is ramping up exports.
Top exporter Saudi Arabia, supported by Kuwait and the
United Arab Emirates, has boosted output informally to cover for
outages elsewhere in the group. So far, there is no sign of any
further trimming, according to the survey.
In fact, industry sources in Saudi Arabia have talked of
higher demand with the approach of winter and return of
refineries from maintenance - factors that would argue against
cutting output. Sources in the survey said
supply to market had increased this month.
Some OPEC members have voiced concern over the drop in
prices and its meeting on Nov. 27 in Vienna is likely see a
debate on whether output needs to be cut.
OPEC's own forecasts suggest demand for its crude will fall
to 29.20 million bpd in 2015 due to rising supply of U.S. shale
oil and supplies from other producers outside the group - almost
1.8 million bpd below current output according to this survey.
Iran on Friday urged OPEC members to make joint efforts to
keep the market from falling further, but the Gulf Arab
producers remain unruffled according to comments from oil
ministers and delegates.
Iranian output was steady in September, the survey found.
Western sanctions over Iran's nuclear work are restraining its
output, although supply has risen since the start of the year
following a softening of the measures.
Iran's budget needs oil prices well above $100, among the
highest in OPEC, while the budget of non-member Russia assumes
an average of $100.
(Editing by Keiron Henderson and Veronica Brown)