SCENARIOS - U.S. Afghan plan has risks for troops, politicians

By David Morgan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States is nearing the final stage of a major military escalation in Afghanistan that will more than double the U.S. presence there to 68,000 troops by year-end, up from about 32,000 at the end of 2008.

The build-up is the leading edge of a more comprehensive counterinsurgency strategy that also calls for massive civilian assistance for the Afghan people.

But officials say President Barack Obama and his national security team must show tangible military progress in the next year or so to ensure ongoing support from the American public as the U.S. Congress heads toward mid-term elections in 2010.

Here are some issues to watch as the strategy plays out:

'THE KIND OF VIOLENCE YOU ... WANT'

The Obama administration is pursuing a military strategy widely expected to produce an early spike in U.S. casualties, as American forces move into areas where the Taliban and other insurgent groups have been operating with near impunity.

"It's the kind of violence that you in fact want, because we are getting rid of the insurgents as we do it," Army General Jeffrey Schloesser explained on June 2, a day before he ended a 15-month tour as the top commander for eastern Afghanistan.