ANALYSIS - Obama's Afghan troop response is key for Europeans

By David Brunnstrom

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's response to a call to commit more U.S. troops to Afghanistan will help determine whether wavering European allies boost their own efforts or look for the exit.

Western resolve has been tested by mounting casualties in a widening Islamist insurgency and by a flawed election in which President Hamid Karzai looks set to retain power, despite widespread allegations of fraud.

If Obama refuses a call by General Stanley McChrystal, the U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, for more troops to avoid failure in the eight-year Western effort, persuading Europeans to do more will be extremely difficult.

"If he doesn't send more forces, it is very unlikely that the Europeans will. In fact, it makes it more likely that some European forces will be withdrawn," said Tomas Valasek of the Centre for European Reform think tank.

Opinion polls in many European countries, including Britain, France and Germany, show clear majorities in favour of withdrawing troops from Afghanistan.

The deaths of six Italian soldiers in a Kabul suicide bombing last week prompted Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to say Italian troops should come home soon.

The Netherlands and Canada have already set 2010 and 2011 withdrawal timelines.

In Germany, polls show about two-thirds of people favour withdrawal and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has made the need for an exit strategy an issue in Sunday's federal election.