SCENARIOS - What next if Abdullah withdraws from Afghan poll?

By Golnar Motevalli

KABUL- Afghan President Hamid Karzai's election rival Abdullah Abdullah is set to announce whether he will take part in next week's disputed run-off vote after cancelling a planned trip to India on Saturday. Following are possible scenarios ahead of the Nov. 7 run-off.

ABDULLAH WITHDRAWS, RUN-OFF PROCEEDS

If Abdullah, Karzai's former foreign minister, announces his withdrawal or a boycott of the run-off, Karzai will not be declared president again automatically.

Afghanistan's constitution is unclear but suggests that, in the event of a candidate withdrawing, the run-off must still go ahead with just the one remaining candidate.

The government-appointed Independent Election Commission has said that is indeed the case. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in Abu Dhabi on Saturday such a situation was not unprecedented.

Karzai's legitimacy however would be severely undermined in such a scenario, analysts say, because only Karzai's supporters would come out to vote.

"If Abdullah boycotts, voter turnout will be very low and Karzai will be declared winner but with very low legitimacy," said Kabul-based political analyst Haroun Mir.