POLL - Analysts split on rate rise by end-Jan

By Anurag Joshi

MUMBAI (Reuters) - Analysts are almost evenly split on whether India's central bank will raise interest rates in the next three months, but are unanimous they will be lifted at least once by the end of April, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

In a quarterly policy review on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said it would withdraw emergency liquidity measures and increased some loan provisioning requirements, but left its key policy rates unchanged.

Nine out of 20 analysts polled after the RBI's statement expected the central bank to raise its repo rate, at which it lends short-term funds to banks, by up to 50 basis points by end-January, when the next review is due.

Eight out of 20 expected the central bank to raise the reverse repo rate, at which it absorbs funds from the banking system, by up to 50 basis points by end-January.

All 20 analysts expected both rates would have been raised at least once by the end of April, with forecasts of the increases ranging from 25 to 75 basis points.

"A fair amount of growth is a prerequisite for triggering a rate action, which won't happen before April. But a liquidity tightening would precede the rate action," said Shubhada Rao, Chief Economist at Yes Bank.

Sixteen analysts expected an increase in the cash reserve ratio (CRR), the proportion of deposits banks must keep with the central bank, by the end of January.

However, no further increase was seen in the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR), the share of deposits banks must hold in government securities. On Tuesday, the RBI raised the SLR to 25 percent from Nov. 7, unwinding a cut to 24 percent made last November.