INTERVIEW - India sees late monsoon exit, narrower gap

By Ratnajyoti Dutta

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Late end-season rains will help narrow India's total monsoon rainfall deficit to 15-18 percent, boosting depleted reservoirs and helping winter crops, the head of the Indian weather office told Reuters on Tuesday.

Since June 1, monsoon rains have been 20 percent below normal and heavy showers in the past week have reduced the total seasonal deficit by three percentage points, India Meteorological Department Director General Ajit Tyagi said.

"We hope the seasonal rainfall will be 15-18 percent below normal," said Tyagi, revising his Aug. 28 forecast of a 20 percent deficit.

Tyagi said the country can expect heavy rains for at least another week, but the withdrawal of the monsoon, which usually begins to wind down in early September, would be delayed.

"The start of monsoon withdrawal is expected to be late by one week to 10 days over northwest India," Tyagi said.

But late rainfall, particularly in end-September and next month, will worry sugar mills as it may delay harvesting and cane crushing in the country, hitting output.

India's sugarcane crop contracted last year because farmers shifted to other, more remunerative crops, making India swing from being a big exporter last year to a large importer in the current season.

This year, the driest June in 83 years and a 27 percent rain deficit in August has hit the cane crop, particularly in the top-producing Uttar Pradesh state, helping raw futures prices surge to the highest in nearly three decades.